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The short-term fluctuation pattern of EUR/USD has not changed, and the divergent stance of ECB officials has attracted attention

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The short-term shock pattern of EUR/USD has not changed, and the divergent stance of ECB officials has attracted attention." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

XM Foreign Exchange APP News - During the European trading session on Monday (December 8), the EUR/USD rebounded after two consecutive losses. The exchange rate rebounded to around 1.1654, recovering some of the losses last week. The price rebounded from the low of 1.1630 on Friday, and the overall price is still within the fluctuation range of last week. Behind this trend, bullish and short factors are intertwined: the market's strong expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week continue to suppress the U.S. dollar index, while the divergent opinions of officials within the European Central Bank (ECB) and the marginal improvement in the Eurozone economy have jointly provided structural support for the euro. From the perspective of the fundamentals of the euro area, the hawkish remarks of Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, are particularly concerning. In an interview released this morning, she expressed optimistic expectations for the euro zone economy, pointing out that growth risks may actually be skewed to the positive. These positive factors may www.xmniubi.come from household consumption, private sector investment, and government spending in infrastructure construction and defense. However, the above remarks need to be understood in conjunction with its consistently aggressive policy stance, which was also interpreted by the market as an indirect rebuttal to ECB officials who advocated another interest rate cut. Schnabel further said that the ECB may raise its growth forecast in its next forecast on December 18, and she agreed with the market's expectation that the ECB's next move will be a rate hike. Schnabel's hawkish remarks directly boosted the euro this morning and also helped to further reduce the hedging costs of euro zone investors. In addition, German industrial production data exceeded market expectations, providing physical support for the euro zone's economic recovery, and the euro zone's Sentix investor confidence index released later that day is expected to provide further guidance for the euro's subsequent trend. In contrast to Schnabel’s optimistic stance,In www.xmniubi.comparison, Oli Rehn, a member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank and President of the Central Bank of Finland, pointed out during the European trading session on Monday that the current inflation risks in the euro zone economy are mainly downward risks. In terms of interest rate policy, Rehn emphasized that the ECB will insist on retaining all policy options, maintain freedom of action, and advance decision-making through meetings one by one. He also mentioned that although the current inflation risk is slightly downward, the risk of rising inflation also exists. Therefore, out of cautious considerations, the central bank has given up on preemptive easing policies. It is worth noting that he also warned that if the Federal Reserve loses its independence, it will also have a knock-on impact on the ECB's policy formulation. Currently, Eurozone inflation expectations have stabilized near the 2% target level, which provides the basis for the European Central Bank's policy balance. In terms of the U.S. dollar, the market is generally expecting the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday. Although the current level of U.S. inflation remains high and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish stance, significant differences of opinion are expected to emerge within the Federal Open Market www.xmniubi.committee (FOMC), which makes the Fed's future policy path full of uncertainty. In terms of data, there will be basically no important economic data released in the United States on Monday, while JOLTS job vacancy data will be released on Tuesday, and the Federal Open Market www.xmniubi.committee meeting will be held on Wednesday night. The current market risk appetite is at a medium level. Affected by the wait-and-see mood before the implementation of the Federal Reserve policy, market volatility is still relatively limited. ING analysts believe that the range from 1.1630 to 1.1680 is a short-term fluctuation range; before the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, the market is at risk of breaking through this range, and prices may rise to the 1.1700 or 1.1730 level. Foreign exchange analysts at UOB Group pointed out that the euro exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 1.1625 and 1.1665. In the long term, the euro's upward momentum has begun to slow down; if the euro exchange rate falls below 1.1615, it means that the euro's previous upward trend may end.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The short-term shock pattern of EUR/USD has not changed, and the divergent stance of ECB officials has attracted attention". It was carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The short-term fluctuation pattern of EUR/USD has not changed, and the divergent stance of ECB officials has attracted attention

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

The short-term fluctuation pattern of EUR/USD has not changed, and the divergent stance of ECB officials has attracted attention

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason