The global long-term bond sell-off spreads, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 8

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.02%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.08%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.24%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.17%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.17%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.17%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.02%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The global long-term bond sell-off spread, and German bond yields hit a new high in more than ten years

⑴The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to 3.463% on Monday, the highest level since 2011. ⑵ This trend is a continuation of last week's gains, when the yield surged by more than 10 basis points, the largest weekly increase since August. ⑶At the same time, Germany’s 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, also rose to 2.837%, a new high since March this year. ⑷ Global concerns about fiscal sustainability are the core reason for the continued weakness in long-term bonds. ⑸ Further pressure www.xmniubi.comes from the European Central Bank. Its executive member Schnabel said that the central bank's next move is more likely to raise interest rates rather than cut interest rates. ⑹ A series of recent strong economic data have also weakened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in 2026. ⑺ Data showed that Germany's industrial output increased more than expected in October, the annual inflation rate was higher than expected, and business activity rose to a two-and-a-half-year high. ⑻ Volatility in the Japanese bond market has spilled over to the euro zone, with yields rising to multi-year highs on expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week and the new prime minister promises to expand fiscal spending. ⑼The analysis points out that although eachEconomies differ, but cross-market investors are making the moves in the U.S., European and Japanese Treasury curves highly correlated. ⑽ Money market traders still expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026, but some institutional economists believe that an interest rate cut is still more likely than a rate increase.

Risk aversion spreads, the interest rate spread curve is steep, and the market is waiting for the "hawkish interest rate cut" to be implemented

⑴ On Monday, the U.S. dollar swap spread showed a buying trend at the opening, and the interest rate spread curve steepened slightly. ⑵ Continued negative sentiment in the U.S. Treasury market has caused swap traders to adopt a defensive posture, and overnight capital flows are biased towards the payer. ⑶ As the new investment-grade bond issuance calendar draws to a close at the end of the year, market directional trading has dominated the past two periods. ⑷ Institutional data shows that investment-grade bond issuance totaled US$30.75 billion last week, but issuance is expected to shrink to US$5 billion to US$10 billion this week. ⑸ Money market interest rates rose slightly, and the overnight index swap and overnight financing interest rate curves both steepened. ⑹ The market has fully digested the Federal Reserve’s expectations for an interest rate cut this week, but the expected probability of consecutive interest rate cuts in January and March is still low. ⑺The price of federal funds futures in January reflects only a 21% probability of another interest rate cut, and the probability in March is 38.0%. ⑻ U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise after last Friday's decline, and the selling pressure on Japanese government bonds and European government bonds had a spillover effect, affecting U.S. bonds. ⑼ Although market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week are high, the yield curve has moved almost parallel. ⑽ Investors generally expect that this will be a "hawkish interest rate cut", that is, the Federal Reserve will imply that interest rates are close to neutral levels and subsequent stimulus measures will slow down. ⑾ ECB official Schnabel said he was "quite www.xmniubi.comfortable" with market bets that the next move would be to raise interest rates. This www.xmniubi.comment caused European debt to plummet, with German 30-year government bond yields testing 14-year highs, and driving U.S. bond yields to follow suit. ⑿ Japanese government bond yields hit multi-year highs as investors bet heavily that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates despite further contraction in GDP in the third quarter.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow and pay attention to the tone of the policy statement

⑴ The market is generally expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at tomorrow's meeting. No economic forecasts will be released at this meeting, so the focus will be on policy statements and press conferences. ⑵ The central bank is expected to remain cautious and acknowledge inflation-related risks, but there is a risk that its policy stance will turn hawkish. Policy statements will be closely watched for any signs of a shift in hawkish tone. ⑶The central bank has been cautious about the recent rise in inflation. Fed officials have previously stated that two-thirds of the increase in the consumer price index in the third quarter may be noise. If it expresses more concern about inflation, it means that the tone will turn hawkish. ⑷If the Reserve Bank of Australia directly states that it does not believe that further interest rate cuts are necessary, or that monetary policy is no longer restrictive, this will also constitute a change in its hawkish stance.

Latvia’s inflation rate slowed to a four-month low in November

⑴ Latvia’s annual inflation rate slowed to 3.8% in November 2025, the lowest level in four months.That's down from 4.3% in October. ⑵ The slowdown in inflation was mainly driven by the slowdown in price growth in the following categories: food price growth dropped to 5.2% (previous value: 5.6%), transportation price growth dropped to 2.2% (previous value: 2.6%), miscellaneous goods and services price growth dropped to 0.8% (previous value: 4.5%), entertainment and The growth rate of cultural prices dropped to 2.0% (previous value was 2.3%), the growth rate of medical prices dropped to 3.7% (previous value was 4.0%), the growth rate of alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices dropped to 2.1% (previous value was 2.4%), and the growth rate of www.xmniubi.communication prices dropped to 2.7% (previous value was 3.0%). ⑶The growth rate of housing prices stabilized at 6.2%, the growth rate of restaurant and hotel prices stabilized at 5.4%, and the growth rate of clothing and footwear prices accelerated to 1.7% (previous value was 1.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.3% in November, reversing a 0.4% increase in October and marking the largest decline since August 2024.

Ethiopia's November inflation rate further dropped to 10.9%, the lowest since February 2019

⑴ Ethiopia's annual inflation rate further dropped to 10.9% in November 2025, from 11.7% in the previous month, the lowest level since February 2019, despite the country's continued currency pressure. ⑵ This is the sixth consecutive month that inflation has slowed, mainly due to a decline in non-food inflation (11.4%, the previous value was 14.2%). On the other hand, food inflation accelerated to 10.6% (previously 10.2%) due to rising prices for vegetables, meat, sugar and sweets, dairy products, fruits, oils and fats and other food products. ⑶On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 1.4% in November, www.xmniubi.compared with an increase of 2.3% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the local currency remains under pressure due to persistent foreign currency shortages. The shift to a market-based foreign exchange mechanism in July 2024 brought the official exchange rate into line with parallel market levels, triggering dramatic fluctuations in the Ethiopian birr exchange rate.

The yield on 10-year British government bonds rose above 4.5%, and wage growth accelerated, making the central bank's decision-making more difficult

⑴ The yield on 10-year British government bonds rose above 4.5%, as data showed that wage growth accelerated, making the Bank of England's policy outlook more www.xmniubi.complicated. ⑵ Yields are also driven by the overall global trend. Previously, European Central Bank official Isabelle Schnabel expressed satisfaction with market bets that the central bank may raise interest rates next, pushing German government bond yields to rise. At the same time, Japanese government bond yields hit multi-year highs amid expectations that the central bank may raise interest rates next week, further driving the global bond market. ⑶ Starting salaries for permanent employees rose at the fastest pace in five months despite a slowdown in hiring and an increase in job applicants, a survey showed, exacerbating concerns about inflation as the Bank of England must weigh between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation. ⑷Despite these developments, market expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week have changed little, with the probability of a rate cut currently priced at about 84%. The second 25 basis point rate cut is almost entirely priced in June, but there is still about a 75% chance it will happen in April.born.

The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds rose to a one-month high

⑴The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds climbed above 3.5%, the highest level since October 9. Global bonds had generally risen as investors weighed the European Central Bank's policy outlook and Europe's fiscal concerns. ⑵ European Central Bank official Isabelle Schnabel said she was satisfied with market bets that the central bank might raise interest rates next, and pointed out that current economic growth and inflation risks are both tilted to the upside. Her www.xmniubi.comments, coupled with solid economic activity and inflation close to target, reinforced market expectations that the European Central Bank may keep interest rates on hold until 2026. ⑶ On the fiscal front, Italy shows signs of stability, with the budget deficit expected to fall below 3% of GDP in 2025, lower than 3.4% in 2024 and better than the previous target of 3.3%. ⑷ However, Germany's 2026 budget contains nearly 180 billion euros in borrowed funds, while France has approved the tax portion of the country's 2026 social security budget after Prime Minister Le Cornu made concessions to ensure the legislative process.

The giant ship quietly changed its rudder, and the Buffett "dynasty" ushered in key personnel changes

⑴ Berkshire Hathaway announced two important high-level personnel changes to prepare for the upcoming retirement of www.xmniubi.company founder Warren Buffett. ⑵ Todd Coombs, Buffett’s senior deputy, www.xmniubi.company investment manager and CEO of GEICO Insurance, will step down. ⑶ www.xmniubi.combs will join JPMorgan Chase to lead the bank's $10 billion strategic investment group under the recently launched safety and resilience plan and serve as a special advisor to Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon. ⑷At the same time, Mark Hamburger, the long-term chief financial officer of Berkshire Hathaway, will step down on June 1, 2026. ⑸The 40-year veteran of the service www.xmniubi.company will stay on until 2027. ⑶ Charles Chang, currently senior vice president and chief financial officer of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, will succeed Hamburg as the group's chief financial officer. ⑷ Buffett said in the statement that Mark is indispensable to the www.xmniubi.company and himself. ⑸ Less than a month ago, the 95-year-old Buffett said that he would "keep a low profile" as he prepares to step down from the www.xmniubi.company he has led since the 1960s. ⑹ In May this year, Buffett revealed his plan to step down as CEO at the end of the year, and the www.xmniubi.company has appointed Vice Chairman Greg Abel as his successor. ⑺Berkshire Hathaway also announced that Nancy Pierce, who had served as chief operating officer of GEICO Insurance, would succeed www.xmniubi.combs at the helm of the insurance www.xmniubi.company. ⑻ www.xmniubi.combs' switch to peers and the generational change of chief financial officer mark that Berkshire's core management reorganization before Buffett's retirement has entered a substantial stage.

Zelensky said that the "peace plan" still needs further discussion

Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the 8th that part of the US "peace plan" requires further discussion on a series of "sensitive issues", including Ukraine's territory and security.obstacle problem. Zelensky said that the United States, Russia and Ukraine each have their own views and do not agree on some issues. In addition, Zelensky said that Ukraine insists on reaching a separate security agreement with its Western allies, especially the United States.

The Council of the European Union approved the "European Defense Industry Plan"

On December 8, local time, the Council of the European Union officially approved the "European Defense Industry Plan." The plan aims to strengthen the EU's defense industry, promote joint European defense procurement, enhance defense manufacturing capabilities, and increase support for Ukraine. According to the agreement, between 2025 and 2027, the "European Defense Industry Plan" will receive an initial allocation of 1.5 billion euros to expand defense production capabilities, jointly purchase arms, and develop supply chains.

Giants unite to deal with the high tax burden, and the wave of consolidation in the British North Sea oil and gas industry continues

⑴Total Energy announced on Monday that it will merge its British North Sea oil and gas assets with its joint ventures of Repsol and HitecVision. ⑵The new entity after the merger will be named NEONEXT+, with Total holding 47.5% of the shares, Repsol holding 23.625%, and HitecVision holding 28.875%. ⑶ It is expected that by 2026, the new www.xmniubi.company's daily production will exceed 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent, and its scale will exceed the Adura joint venture project between Shell and Equinor. ⑷ This transaction is the latest example of the integration trend in the British North Sea region. Shell and Equinor have previously merged assets, and Ithaca Energy has also acquired Eni Group’s assets in the region. ⑸ One of the key factors driving consolidation is the high tax burden in the UK. The windfall profits tax will continue until 2030 and be replaced by a new high-price tax mechanism. ⑹ The www.xmniubi.comprehensive tax burden of an enterprise can reach up to 78%, but historical losses can be deducted through consolidation, thereby optimizing the overall tax burden. ⑺ Some analysts pointed out that although the merger can improve operational efficiency and reduce costs, the British Revenue and Customs Administration may become the main "loser" because the taxes paid by the merged entity may be lower than the sum of the www.xmniubi.companies when they operate independently. ⑻The transaction is expected to be www.xmniubi.completed in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory approval conditions. ⑼ This cooperation www.xmniubi.comes only nine months after the last merger of Repsol and NEO Energy, showing that the restructuring of assets in the region is accelerating. ⑽The oil and gas fields included in the merger include Elgin/Franklin, Penguins, Mariner, Shearwater, Culzean, Alwyn North and Dunbar.

European Bank officials once again made hawkish noises: it is a foregone conclusion that interest rates will remain unchanged in the www.xmniubi.coming months

⑴ European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazmir said there is no reason to adjust interest rates in the next few months, and there will be "absolutely" no changes in December. ⑵ He also emphasized that it has become more important to remain "vigilant" to the risks of upward inflation, as the labor market remains tight, growth is slightly stronger than expected, and wage growth is slower than expected. ⑶ Casimir pointed out that although a stronger exchange rate may reduceImport costs, but the transmission effect of exchange rate on prices may be weaker than expected, and www.xmniubi.companies may not fully reflect exchange rate changes in final pricing. ⑷ Therefore, the central bank should not overreact to short-term inflation fluctuations caused by the energy base effect. ⑸ He is not worried about the forecast that inflation may temporarily fall below 2% next year, believing that factors such as the output gap being closed and growth at potential levels have reduced the risk of too low inflation. ⑹ He believes that monetary policy needs to provide certainty. If the policy is "over-designed" around small inflation fluctuations, it will create uncertainty. ⑺ These remarks further strengthened market expectations that the European Central Bank has ended its interest rate cutting cycle. ⑻ This echoes the hawkish view of his colleague Schnabel that "the next step is more likely to be to raise interest rates," showing that the consensus within the central bank on maintaining interest rate stability is solidifying.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1654, an increase of 0.09%. Prices (EUR/USD) declined in the New York pre-market, paring the early gains of the day, gaining bullish momentum that may help to revive and consolidate those gains, with the bull market dominating on a short-term basis, as well as trading along the trend line, after reaching oversold levels, and the dynamic pressure represented by its trading above the EMA50 continues after reaching oversold levels, in addition to positive signals on the relative strength indicator.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell, now trading at 1.3326, a decrease of 0.03%. Before the New York market opened, in the last intraday trading, GBPUSD rose slightly and was preparing to break through the key resistance level of 1.3350. Its trading was supported above the EMA50 and was dominated by a bullish correction wave in the short term. At the same time, the supporting trend line trading accompanying this trend, coupled with the relative strength indicator reaching excessive oversold levels, showed that the bearish momentum may quickly weaken.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen, now trading at 4205.73, an increase of 0.24%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) price declined in the last trading session, relying on support from its EMA50 as it attempts to gain bullish momentum, which may help it attack the key resistance of selling at $4,245 as the short-term bullish trend dominates and trades along the trend line. Additionally, the relative strength indicator showed positive overlapping signals after reaching oversold levels, strengthening the chances of price recovery in the period ahead.

Spot silver: as of 21:2 Beijing time0. Spot silver fell, now trading at 58.208, a decrease of 0.08%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices rose in the last trading session, preparing to reach the key resistance of $58.80, supported by trading above the EMA50 and trading dominated by the short-term major bullish trend and the major and minor support trend lines of that trend, opening the way to realize more gains after unloading overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 59.380, a decrease of 1.17%. Before the New York market opened, (crude oil) prices fell on the last trading day and once again fell below the $59.85 resistance, negative signals appeared on the relative strength indicator in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover again. Its trading was along the secondary bullish trend line, which is a dynamic support, and it was trading above the EMA50, which is a dynamic pressure that strengthens the chances of a near-term price recovery.

4. Institutional view

Nomura Securities: Adjusted expectations and expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December

⑴ Nomura Securities joined the ranks of many global peers and changed its previous expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in December. It is now expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December policy meeting. ⑵ However, Nomura Securities also pointed out that there is still great uncertainty in the policy decision in December.

Barclays predicts: Germany will lead the Eurozone in bond supply growth in 2026, with a total scale that may reach 350 billion euros

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Global long-term bond sell-off spreads, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 8". It is carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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