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market analysis
The dollar fluctuates above the 98 mark, evidence of weak job market reappears
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar fluctuates above the 98 mark, and evidence of weak employment market reappears." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 4, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.15. On Wednesday, the US dollar index fluctuated above the 98 mark. The US market fell sharply after the occupational vacancy data showed weak recruitment of enterprises, and finally closed down 0.19% to 98.142. U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.221%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields sensitive to Fed policy interest rates closed at 3.625%. Driven by the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and market risk aversion sentiment, spot gold rose for seven consecutive days, once approaching $3,580/oz during the session, setting a new record high, and finally closed up 0.73% to close at $3,559.13/oz; spot silver broke through $41/oz, continuing to hit a new high since 2011, and finally closed up 0.81% to $41.22/oz. International crude oil dived during the session after reports that OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at its meeting on Sunday. WTI crude oil fell below the $64 mark and finally closed down 2.78% at $63.55/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 2.49% at $67.28/barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.15. Market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, with some traders expecting a third rate cut by early 2026. The Fed's dovish tendency remains the main driver of the continued weakness of the dollar, which makes the dollar the worst performer among the major currencies in 2025, down nearly 10% so far this year. Technically,If the U.S. dollar index falls below the 98.00 level, it will move towards support in the 97.10–97.30 range.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Thursday, gold hovered around 3560.28. This trading day will be released on the number of layoffs of challenger www.xmniubi.companies in the United States in August, changes in the number of ADP jobs in the United States in August, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 30, and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August. In addition, the US Senate Financial www.xmniubi.committee held a hearing on the nomination of Milan as the Federal Reserve Board. FOMC Permanent Voting www.xmniubi.committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams will speak at the New York Economic Club, and investors need to pay attention.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Thursday, crude oil trading around 63.48. Reuters reported that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are considering raising crude oil production levels, falling on concerns about global oil glut. OPEC+ countries are scheduled to meet on Sunday to decide on production in October. It is widely reported that the group will consider further increasing oil production at this meeting. OPEC+ has agreed to increase its production target from April to September by about 2.2 million barrels per day, in addition to adding a quota of 300,000 barrels per day to the United Arab Emirates. Concerns about increased OPEC production are not good for WTI prices.
Forex market trading reminder on September 4, 2025
20:15 Number of U.S. ADP employment in August
20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to August 30
20:30 US July trade account
21:45 US August S&P Global Services PMI final value
22:00 US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI
22:00 US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI
22:00 US Senate www.xmniubi.committee held a hearing on the nomination of the Federal Reserve Board
22:30 US to August 29th EIA natural gas inventories
23:30 Fed Williams delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club
The next day 00:00 US to August 29 EIA crude oil inventories
The next day 00:00 US to August 29 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories
The next day 00:00 US to August 29 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories
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