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Before ISM, the US dollar returned to the game. Can the Australian dollar bulls hold 0.6480?

Wonderful introduction:

Let your sorrows be full of worries, and you can't sleep, and you can't sleep. The full moon hangs high, scattered all over the ground. I think that the bright moon will be ruthless, and the wind and frost will fade away for thousands of years, and the passion will fade away easily. If there is love, it should have grown old with the wind. Knowing that the moon is ruthless, why do you repeatedly express your love to the bright moon?

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Before ISM, the US dollar returned, can the Australian dollar bulls hold 0.6480?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Tuesday (September 2), the Australian dollar/USD fell about 0.9% before the market, trading near the 0.6500 mark. The direct drive to trigger the decline came from the rebound of the US dollar index (DXY) - after a continuous weakening, DXY rebounded strongly from the month-long low of 97.50, touching around 98.50. At the same time, the market focuses on the US ISM manufacturing PMI for August, which will be announced at 22:00 tonight in Beijing time. The consensus estimate is 49.0 (previous value of 48.0), which is still below the boom-bust line of 50, but is slightly improved from last month.

The highlight of the week is U.S. employment data: Friday's non-farm (NFP) will calibrate bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Previously, the NFP showed that employment data from May to June was significantly revised downward, and the market became increasingly sensitive to the path of "economic cooling-policy relaxation". In Australia, Australia's Q2 GDP will be released on Wednesday, with a quarterly growth rate expected to be 0.5% (previously 0.2%) and an annual rate expected to be 1.6%.

Franchise: The pull of data chain and policy expectations

Clues of US growth and inflation: The www.xmniubi.composition of ISM manufacturing is the "navigation" of tonight's transactions. In July this year, the ISM report showed that the US manufacturing industry contracted for the fifth consecutive month (previously experienced a 26-month long contraction period before two months of brief expansion), reflecting that the manufacturing end is still an economic "shortcoming". In the sub-item, new orders recorded 47.1, pointing to slowing demand; the price index fell to 64.8 (top 69.7), indicating that cost pressure fell but was still high; the employment index fell to 43.4 (top 45), and employment intention was weak; the output index rose to 51.4 (top 50.3), and output expanded slightly. If the headlines tonight PMReturning to above 50 will send a signal of "manufacturing improvement again", which will not only benefit the US dollar, but also reduce the probability of short-term interest rate cuts; on the contrary, it will be unfavorable to the US dollar and strengthen expectations of easing, but the overall "explosion points are limited", which is more to warm up for Friday's non-agricultural economy.

U.S. Labor Market: This week's job openings, initial jobless claims and NFP constitute a "three-piece set of employment". After the historical retrospective downward revision in non-agricultural agriculture in July, the market's tolerance for employment elasticity has decreased, and any "super weak/super strong" accidents may trigger an amplification of exchange rate volatility.

Australian end variables: The market is concerned about whether Q2 GDP accelerates from 0.2% to 0.5%, and whether the annual rate of 1.6% can be realized. If GDP is realized and the resilience of the service industry may form a certain buffer against the Australian dollar; on the contrary, the fundamental advantage is biased towards the US dollar.

Technical:

On the 240-minute K-line chart of the Australian dollar/USD, Bollinger's middle rail is 0.6527, upper rail is 0.6574, and lower rail is 0.6481; the price has recently fallen from the high point of 0.6559, and is currently oscillating around the 0.6500 line, located below the middle rail and close to the lower rail, and is in a weak oscillation-retracement pattern in the short term. The MACD reading shows: DIFF0.0007, DEA0.0014, column value MACD-0.0012, kinetic energy turns from positive to weak and the column turns green, indicating that the upward action energy is attenuated and the short-term entry into the callback stage. RSI (14) was 40.3321, which was in the weak range but did not touch oversold, leaving room for a second downward or a technical rebound. Structurally, the uplink wave started from the low point of 0.6414 retreated to below the Bollinger middle track after being blocked at 0.6559, with slightly neutral bandwidth expanding, www.xmniubi.combined with the long negative line sequence of K-line entities, pointing to the micro rhythm of backtesting + oscillation. In terms of position level:

Support: 0.6481 (Bollinger's lower track), 0.6450 (psychological position).

Resistance: 0.6527 (Balling middle rail), 0.6559 (stage high), 0.6574 (Balling upper rail).

In the scope of technical analysis, if ISM is less than expected and triggers a short-term technical rebound, the backtest effectiveness of 0.6527 is first observed above; if the data is strong and the US dollar rises, the 0.6450 range may be tested downward. The current structure is more like a relay retracement than a confirmation reversal, and the price response to the middle/lower rail will give the next direction.

Prevention of market sentiment: cautious and bearish, but sufficient volatility elasticity

From the consensus perspective, the market has accepted that manufacturing is in fundamental differences—the sustainability and employment resilience of the US manufacturing industry restoration remains to be verified; if Australia's GDP accelerates as scheduled, it will form a marginal restraint on the narrative of "the dollar is strong".

Technical game - The RSI40 line has not yet reached an extreme, giving shorts a two-way space to continue to test pressure on the lower rail and the bulls' technical pullback; MACD turns green but has limited amplitude, which means that the breaking level requires the probability of event promotion.

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Before ISM, the US dollar returned to the game. Can the Australian dollar bulls hold 0.6480?

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