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A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: A collection of good and bad news that affects the foreign exchange market." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On April 9, the core driver of the foreign exchange market was the recurring situation in the Middle East + the swing in central bank policy expectations. The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz alternately dominated the mood. The divergence in the Federal Reserve minutes and the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the European and British central banks simultaneously disturbed the exchange rate. The US dollar index fluctuated widely, and non-US currencies were clearly differentiated. The following is a www.xmniubi.comprehensive summary of the core good and bad news affecting the market today to assist foreign exchange trading decisions.
1. Negative for the U.S. dollar: geopolitical easing is www.xmniubi.combined with expectations of interest rate cuts, and the advantages of hedging and high interest rates are weakened
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has been implemented, and the demand for U.S. dollar hedging has plummeted. The U.S. and Iran have officially reached a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement. The first round of negotiations will be held in Pakistan on April 11. The U.S. has suspended air strikes against Iran and Iran has promised to open the Strait of Hormuz. The 40-day conflict in the Middle East was suspended, and market risk aversion quickly cooled. The U.S. dollar index gave up all its gains since 2026, falling below the 99 mark to around 98.8. Although Israel's air strikes on Lebanon and Iran's re-closure of the strait triggered reversals, the general trend of ceasefire suppressed dollar bulls.
The plunge in oil prices has eased inflation, and expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen. Affected by the ceasefire, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 15%, with WTI crude oil falling below US$95 per barrel, and energy inflation pressure has rapidly subsided. CME interest rate futures show that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June has risen to 50%, and expectations for an interest rate cut before the end of the year have increased. Although the Federal Reserve's March minutes mentioned that some officials were worried about inflation and did not rule out raising interest rates, most officials still preferred to cut interest rates within the year. The hawkish signal of policy weakened and the appeal of the U.S. dollar's high interest rates continued to decline.
Global risk appetite is picking up, non-US assets are being diverted, US dollar buying ceases to boost global risk sentiment, European and American stock markets have rebounded sharply, and A-shares have surged close to 4000 o'clock. Funds flowed from U.S. dollar safe-haven assets to stock markets and www.xmniubi.commodity currencies. Risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar strengthened, further suppressing the trend of the U.S. dollar.
2. Good for the US dollar: Ceasefire fragility + policy differences support the bottom resilience of the US dollar
The situation in the Middle East has been volatile, and risk aversion has not www.xmniubi.completely dissipated. Changes occurred on the first day of the ceasefire agreement. Israel refused to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and launched large-scale air strikes against Hezbollah. Iran condemned Israel's breach of contract and closed the Strait of Hormuz again, requiring ships to pass through designated routes. Geographical uncertainty still exists, and the U.S. dollar still has periodic safe-haven support to avoid a unilateral plunge.
The Federal Reserve minutes released a hawkish signal, limiting the dollar's downside. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed that officials were divided on the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Many officials emphasized the risk of inflation and did not rule out raising interest rates under certain circumstances. Most officials believe that inflation will fall slower than expected, the 2% target will still be difficult to achieve, and interest rates may be cut only once this year. "Fed spokesperson" Nick Timiraos pointed out that the ceasefire did not make the prospect of interest rate cuts clear, and U.S. dollar policy expectations have not www.xmniubi.completely turned dovish.
The U.S. economy is more resilient than Europe and Japan, and fundamentals support the U.S. dollar. The U.S. non-agricultural and retail sales data in March performed solidly, and the economic growth rate is higher than that of the euro zone and Japan. The Eurozone's www.xmniubi.comprehensive PMI hit a 10-month low in March, the UK's economic recovery is sluggish, Japan's inflation is slowing, the fundamentals of non-US economies are weak, and the US dollar's relative advantage remains.
3. Good for non-U.S. currencies: Risks pick up + policy differences are optimized, bull momentum gathers
Euro: Geopolitical easing + interest rate hike expectations cool, bulls’ strong US-Iran ceasefire eases concerns about energy inflation in Europe, traders remove expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank. The euro broke through the 1.17 mark against the U.S. dollar, hitting a recent high. The rebound in risk appetite www.xmniubi.combined with the weakening of the U.S. dollar made the euro the strongest currency in the European market. Technically, the bullish trend is clear, with short-term support at 1.1650 and resistance at 1.1750.
www.xmniubi.commodity currencies: oil price fluctuations + data recovery, shock and strength. The Australian dollar is supported by China's economic data recovery, and the Australian dollar is approaching the 0.70 mark against the US dollar; the Canadian dollar benefits from the rebound in risk appetite, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar fell below 1.3950; the New Zealand dollar rose by more than 2% due to the hawkish remarks of the New Zealand Federal Reserve, becoming the leader of www.xmniubi.commodity currencies.
RMB: The exchange rate continues to strengthen, reaching a three-year high. The onshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 6.83 mark, the central parity rate increased significantly by 174 basis points, and the CFETS exchange rate index rose to 101.2. China's economic recovery and foreign trade data are improving, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB has www.xmniubi.comprehensively appreciated against the world's major currencies.
4. Negative for non-U.S. currencies: geopolitical uncertainty + economic weakness, limited upward movement
British Pound: Expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England have increased, and the increase has been limited. The fall in oil prices has eased inflationary pressure in the UK. The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates at a faster pace than the European Central Bank, and the pound's rise against the US dollar is less than that of the euro. The UK's domestic economic recovery is sluggish, inflation is falling slower than expected, and policy uncertainty is suppressing GBP and US bulls.
Japanese yen: Weakening of risk aversion + suppression of interest rate differentials, weak rebound. The US-Iran ceasefire weakened the demand for safe havens in the Japanese yen. Although the US dollar against the yen fell from a high of 159.60, the US-Japanese interest rate differential still exists, and the Japanese yen has limited room for rebound. The Bank of Japan's verbal intervention has not been implemented, and the exchange rate trend is still dominated by interest rate differentials.
Swiss franc: The safe-haven attribute has weakened, and the trend is weak. The US dollar against the Swiss franc fell below the 200-day moving average, but the demand for safe havens in the Swiss franc has cooled, and the increase is not as high as that of the euro and the pound. The weak European economy has dragged down the performance of the Swiss franc, and short-term fluctuations have been weak.
5. Key tips for market outlook trading
Today, the foreign exchange market is intertwined with bulls and bears, and volatility has intensified. The focus is on the implementation of the ceasefire in the Middle East and the core PCE data of the United States (today evening). In terms of operation, the US dollar index is mainly on the sidelines, focusing on the support of 98.50 and the resistance of 99.20; the EURUSD is long on dips, relying on the support of 1.1650; the GBP/USD is stable and long, focusing on 1.3400; www.xmniubi.commodity currencies operate with the trend, and be wary of repeated risks of oil prices.
The information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". It is carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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