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The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September are "late but arriving" and will be announced on time at 21:30 on Thursday

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September are "late but arriving" and will be announced on time at 21:30 on Thursday." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

XM Foreign Exchange Market Preview: The U.S.'s September non-agricultural employment report is "late but arriving" and will be announced on time at 21:30 on Thursday

▲XM chart

At 21:30 this Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm employment report. The September non-farm payrolls report was supposed to be released on October 3, but due to the U.S. government shutdown, the release date was significantly delayed. There is no specific release date for the October non-farm payrolls report. The most watched data in the September non-agricultural employment report is the number of new non-agricultural employment. The previous value was 22,000 and the expected value was 50,000. The expected increase is relatively large, but the absolute value is still low. The announced value of small non-agricultural ADP in September was -32,000, lower than the previous value of 54,000 and the expected value of 50,000, indicating a poor performance. ADP data and non-agricultural data are linked, and it is expected that the number of new non-agricultural employment in September may not be as optimistic as market expectations. Historical data shows that starting in May, the U.S. job market began to deteriorate, with the number of new non-agricultural jobs falling below 100,000 for four consecutive months. The main reason is that U.S. President Trump has severely cracked down on illegal immigration, resulting in a sharp decline in the immigrant www.xmniubi.component of new employment data. The poor employment situation has prompted the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts at two interest rate decisions in September and October. If the situation cannot be improved, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again in December.

▲ Both nominal CPI and core CPI data expectations have declined, which means that the Bank of England's relatively cautious monetary policy has played a role in curbing inflation. Before August this year, the Bank of England continued to lower its benchmark interest rate, but in two interest rate decisions in September and October, it announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged at 4%. Bank of England Governor Bailey said: "We need to see the downward path of inflation become clearer before we cut interest rates again." Judging from historical data, since May 2024, the British inflation rate has changed from rapid decline to sideways fluctuations, and the core inflation rate has been unable to fall below 3%. If the Bank of England continues to cut interest rates, there is even a risk of a rapid rebound in inflation. This is the main reason why the Bank of England chose to remain on hold in its interest rate decision.

▲XM chart

At 7:30 this Friday, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and www.xmniubi.communications will announce Japan's October national CPI annual rate, the previous value was 2.9%; Japan's October national core CPI annual rate will be announced at the same time, the previous value is 2.9%, and the expected value is 3%. The core CPI data raises the impact of food and energy, which attracts greater market attention. Japan's core CPI is expected to increase by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in October, which means that the Bank of Japan's delay in raising interest rates is causing the inflation rate to continue to rise. The Bank of Japan mentioned in the minutes of its September meeting: If we only look at the Japanese economy, it may be time to consider raising interest rates. The "Japanese economy" mentioned here mainly refers to the core inflation rate data. Historical data shows that since Japan’s core inflation turned from negative to positive in August 2021, Japan’s inflation level has steadily increased. In April 2022, the core inflation rate exceeded the moderate standard of 2%, and has remained above this standard for more than three consecutive years. Since the beginning of this year, Japan's core inflation rate has been above 3% for most of the time. If the Bank of Japan fails to raise interest rates, it will most likely lead to a sharp increase in Japan's inflation and eventually hyperinflation. The Bank of Japan will make another interest rate decision on December 19, and market participants have very strong expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate hike.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not rely on this report as your sole reference. Analysts' views may change at different times and will be updated without notice.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The US non-farm payrolls in September are "late but arriving" and will be announced on time at 21:30 on Thursday"The content is carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September are "late but arriving" and will be announced on time at 21:30 on Thursday

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September are "late but arriving" and will be announced on time at 21:30 on Thursday

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason