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How long does the gold price rise last? Non-farm employment data or answer
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: How long will the gold price rise last? Non-agricultural employment data may give an answer". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
During the European session on Thursday (September 4), gold prices rose by about 2.73% this week, and previously closed up for seven consecutive trading days. With current bond yields rising and interest rate cut expectations rising, market participants are facing a series of uncertainties.
To make matters worse, uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs emerged again - last Friday, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeal ruled that several tariffs were illegal, and market tensions had reached its peak.
Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to heat up
The current macroeconomic background is www.xmniubi.complex. Recent global dynamics continue to point to unfavorable situations, both in Europe's fiscal issues and domestic concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have exacerbated market uncertainty.
Predictions for interest rate cuts have heated up since Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hall annual meeting. Powell actually acknowledged that employment risks have outweighed inflation concerns, which also underlined the importance of Friday's non-farm jobs data.
To significantly weaken the market's interest rate cut expectations, an unusually strong non-agricultural data support is needed. Currently, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the monetary policy meeting held on September 17. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) show that the current expectation probability has reached 95%; and the implicit interest rate also shows that by December 2025, the potential interest rate cut will rise from around 40 basis points to around 57 basis points.
Any decision by the Federal Reserve may be accompanied by controversy. Although some Fed policymakers say neutral interest rates may rise in the future, the current inflation rate is still far higher than the Fed’s 2% target set by the Fed, so the focus of market discussion will be on whether the Fed’s decisions are subject to the U.S. president.Trump's influence and whether the Fed's independence is damaged.
The Trump administration's continued criticism of the Fed, coupled with the move to fire Lisa Cook, has sparked widespread doubts.
Gold ETF capital inflows surged, geopolitical risks increased
Party participants are investing a large amount of funds in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on gold. Data released by the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), shows that its gold holdings have risen to 977.68 tons, an increase of 12% this year, the highest level since August 2022.
Another factor driving gold prices to soar is the intensification of geopolitical risks. The situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense: European leaders maintain a tough stance, while President Putin continues to blame the conflict on the West.
This week, www.xmniubi.comments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the Israeli and Gaza Strip occupation and the potential annexation plan for the West Bank may further intensify turmoil in the Middle East.
Lana Nusseibeh, Assistant Minister for Political Affairs of the UAE, said in a statement: "The annexation of the West Bank will be the red line for the UAE. This move will seriously undermine the vision and spirit of the Abraham Agreement, end efforts to regional integration, and change the general consensus among all parties on the path to conflict resolution - that is, the two countries coexist in a peaceful, prosperous and secure environment."
These emerging risks are constantly aggravating the accumulated risk pressure, keeping market participants on alert while promoting the continuous inflow of safe-haven funds.
How far can gold prices rise? Non-agricultural data may give an answer
How long will gold price rise last? Non-farm employment data may give answers. If non-farm data perform weakly, market expectations for the Fed's 50 basis points cut rate could heat up — although this possibility is low, it could still inject more momentum into the rise in gold prices.
If the non-agricultural data performs strongly, it will certainly have an impact on gold prices, but unless the data performs "extraordinary", it is unlikely to trigger a sharp pullback in gold prices. In addition, considering the extent and speed of the rise in gold prices this time, after the non-agricultural data is released, the market may experience a wave of profit-taking and closing market conditions, which also needs to be taken into consideration.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, it is currently difficult to judge the top position of gold prices. What's more, the lack of historical price trend reference makes the top judgment almost impossible.
In this case, for gold, I tend to focus on integer marks (with psychological support/resistance significance) and key points such as 25, 50, 75, and see it as potential support or resistance areas. Specifically, I will pay attention to 3525, 3550, 3575 and other levels.
Looking forward to the future market, the primary focus will be the 3600 mark, and after the breakthrough, the 3625 and 3650 areas will become the next batch of focus.
Analysis of the decline directionThe logic is similar.
If you observe the 1-hour chart, it may help identify short-term support areas.
The area near 3546 has seen a price surge and then a decline in price twice, which is slightly lower than the 3550 key position I am concerned about.
Below 3546, the support level below the 50-term moving average (currently located near 3532) and 3527 are.
According to a customer sentiment data tracked, market participants generally bearish on gold, with 69% of traders net short positions. I tend to think in reverse to public sentiment, so the situation of net short positions by most traders suggests that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: How long will the gold price rise last? Non-agricultural employment data may give answers" and is carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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