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How can gold maintain its high-level structure?
Wonderful Introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】: How does gold maintain its high-level structure?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (September 4), affected by the profit settlement after seven consecutive gains, spot gold fell slightly today, and fluctuated around US$3,540 before the market. The bulls pushed gold prices to an all-time high of around $3,578 in the previous trading day. The rise started since $3,310 on August 20, with a cumulative increase of more than 7%, and an additional 2% higher since it stood firm at $3,500. The current market is becoming cautious before the release of key macro data, and short-term fluctuations return to rationality, but the strong main trend has not been destroyed.
Finance: The expectation of interest rate cuts is underway, and event risks suppress the willingness to chase highs
The core driving force of the latest round of rises is still from the heating up pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month. The recent marginal weakness in employment-related data provides cover for policy shifts: JOLTS job vacancy dropped to 7.18 million on Wednesday, lower than the previous value of 7.35 million after the downward correction, and the signal that labor demand continues to cool is strengthened. In conjunction with this, the US dollar rebounded moderately below the previous high, lacking sustainability; the "debt concerns" caused by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields this week subsequently subsided, and the risk appetite of the financial market stabilized, which provided a reason for gold to cash in on the short term, but did not change the structural support for medium-term risk aversion and allocation demand.
Political and policy uncertainty is still providing a bottom buffer for precious metals. The debate between the Fed and tariffs at the executive and judicial level in the United States has exacerbated institutional noise, causing the market to doubt policy continuity and predictability, and gold therefore benefits from the demand for "risk hedging". At the same time, Thursday's ADP, initial unemployment claims and ISM service industry will constitute a "warm-up" before non-agricultural services, while Friday's NFP is the "final review" that determines the rhythm and extent of interest rate cuts: if employment in August is no longerAs expected, the market will be more firm in the judgment of a rate cut this month. The rebound space of the US dollar is limited, and gold's retracement may also be suppressed; on the contrary, if employment rebounds significantly, gold will face a round of "data verification" takeoff and repricing.
Technical:
From the hourly chart, the gold price retreated after forming a high point at the 3578.29 line, reaching a low of 3511.44, and then oscillating around 3540. The Bollinger band shows: upper rail 3577.30, middle rail 3548.90, lower rail 3520.50, the bandwidth slightly converges at the high level. The price is currently located in the narrow band below the middle rail and above the lower rail, which is reflected in the high level consolidation after a strong trend. If it is effectively recovered and stabilized above 3548.90, the superimposed resistance window of 3577.30 and 3578.29 will be tested again in the short term, and further break the Fibon extension pointing to 3589 and the 3600 integer.
MACD: DIFF is -0.31, still lower than DEA's 1.87, and the bar chart value is -4.36, but the negative column is shorter than the previous period, and the kinetic energy shows the characteristics of "downward deceleration"; this usually corresponds to the technical rest in the trend rather than the reversal signal. RSI (14) is around 48.38, and the swing indicator returns to the neutral area, leaving enough space for subsequent selection directions.
In general, 3520.50 and 3511.44 form the hourly key support belt, and the psychological level 3500 is a deeper static support; the upper resistance is 3548.90, 3577.30 and 3578.29 in turn, and it is expected to launch a new round of trend extension to 3589/3600 after the breakthrough.
Preview of market sentiment: High-level differences intensify, but bullish beliefs have not loosened
The "acceleration segment" in the past two weeks has caused some funds to "miss the opportunity" and the following drawdown has triggered a phased profit settlement, which has enabled short-term sentiment to quickly switch between excitement and caution. The simultaneous stability of the equity market and the fixed income market has reduced the urgent demand for safe-haven, and the marginal buying of gold has cooled down; at the same time, the moderate rebound of the US dollar and the stabilization of yields have constituted an external constraint on gold. It is worth noting that the market's medium-term consensus on interest rate cuts has not reversed, and gold still has hedging and diversified value from the perspective of risk parity; while as the US non-farm and interest rate agenda approaches, leveraged funds tend to www.xmniubi.compress positions and volatility exposure, which also explains the "emotional cooling" phenomenon of RSI returning to neutrality and weakening of MACD momentum. The overall sentiment is in a mixed state of "rational optimism" and "pre-event defense": the impulse to chase the rise is suppressed, but the willingness to collect every time it returns still exists.
Full market outlook
(I) Long path
If data and policy www.xmniubi.communication continue to consolidate expectations for interest rate cuts this month, while the US dollar and yields lack a trend upward trend, gold is expected to build a higher platform. Technically, once it returns to 3548.90 (Bolling middle track), it will quickly face the double resistance of 3577.30/3578.29 above. After the breakout is confirmed, the priceIt has the conditions to impact 3589 (Fibon projection) and 3600 integer bits; in trend trading logic, the integer level is often both a "magnetic position" and a "watershed". If the volume is broken up and the backtest confirmation is www.xmniubi.completed, the extension of the high-level channel will still dominate the rhythm. In this scenario, MACD is expected to turn positive, and RSI returns to the 60-70 range, and the volume and price resonance will once again show a typical strong structure of "large volume rise - shrinking volume consolidation".
(II) Short path
If non-agricultural sectors are significantly stronger than expected, the US dollar strengthens and yields rise again, "policy easing and repricing" will trigger a deeper retracement in gold. Once the 3520.50 (Bolling's lower rail) is effectively broken, the stage low point of 3511.44 will be under pressure, and the psychological level 3500 will be converted into a short-term emotional valve: the liquidity below it may become thinner, and the price will enter the "momentum-dominated mean regression" stage, and the subsequent Bollinger band expansion and RSI drop to a weak swing around 40. It should be emphasized that even if this scenario occurs, in the context of the expectation of interest rate cuts, short sellers are more like "adjustment wave in the trend" than medium- and long-term reversal waves, unless subsequent data continues to be strong, systematically and significantly raises the real interest rate.
The above content is all about "【XM Group】: How does gold maintain a high-level structure?". It was carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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