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What's wrong with the euro? European Chemical Industry is trapped in a double kill of "demand + exchange rate"

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: What's wrong with the euro? The European chemical industry is trapped in a double kill of "demand + exchange rate". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (September 3), the euro continued to decline against the US dollar, and as of 15:23, it once hit a weekly low to 1.1607, a drop of about 0.25%; the US dollar index rose 0.66% on Tuesday, and continued to rise on Wednesday to a weekly high, suppressing the euro significantly. The rise of the US dollar was caused by the catalytic impact of the shift in the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy and the soaring UK 30-year treasury bond interest rate, which made the US dollar appreciate against a basket of currencies. It has nothing to do with the eurozone on the surface, but there are also fundamental risks within Europe.

The European chemical industry is highly dependent on overseas markets, but now due to the influence of tariffs and weak demand, the old model of "relying on export growth" is unsustainable; both leaders and small enterprises are facing the problem of "unreliable orders and inaccurate operations".

Small enterprises suffer losses directly due to order loss, and even leaders are full of concerns about short-term operations. The entire industry is shifting from "stable exports" to a "uncertainty-dominated" contraction period. The transformation of work is the fourth largest export industry after machinery, automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and is a microcosm of many industries. The contraction of the chemical industry deeply hurts the eurozone economy.

European chemical producers are facing new turmoil as U.S. import tariffs disrupt global trade, prompting customers to postpone orders and hit demand in the industry, which is struggling to recover from the region's 2022 energy crisis. The EU, the fourth largest export industry after machinery, automobiles and pharmaceuticals, has been struggling in recent years to deal with the high production costs caused by soaring natural gas and electricity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This situation www.xmniubi.combined with the dilemma of key industries has led to a slowdown in demand, which has led to thisSome www.xmniubi.companies in the industry with a scale of 655 billion euros ($767 billion) have closed down, while others have chosen to lay off employees to save costs.

The U.S. imposes at least 15% import tariffs on goods from the EU, hitting many of the industry's major customers, who www.xmniubi.come from the automotive, machinery and consumer goods industries. Global manufacturers have been credited with billions of dollars in losses due to damage caused by the U.S. trade war.

The transformation work is the weight sector of the euro zone stock index, which may become the fuse for stock index adjustment

Stock markets in various countries have hit new highs recently. European chemical stocks are the weight sector of Germany's DAX and euro zone Stock 50 index (Basf accounts for about 3% of the DAX weight and 1.2% of the LANXESS. The sharp downward revision of the chemical sector's performance will seriously affect the valuation center of the stock index. It may become the fuse for the downward adjustment of the stock index, putting pressure on the euro assets.

According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), European chemical www.xmniubi.companies' profits are expected to fall by 5% in the third quarter, while in the second quarter, down by 22%. /p>

" said Thomas Schulte-Vorwick, an analyst at Metzler Research, "Since the energy crisis, we have been hoping that the production and profit margins of the European chemical industry will continue to recover, and the price and profit pressure caused by fierce Asian www.xmniubi.competition in China and elsewhere is "a very toxic www.xmniubi.combination."

Big businesses are hurting the tendons, and small businesses are stirring the bones

The largest www.xmniubi.companies in the industry, especially BASF, Brenntag and Long Lanxess – Somewhat is immune to direct import tariffs due to its strong U.S. operations, but still affected by customer prudent behavior.

Customers delayed orders, causing these www.xmniubi.companies that produce chemicals ranging from mattresses and auto parts to chewing gum to cut or adjust their annual outlook in recent weeks.

BASF, the world's largest chemical producer, lowered its full-year growth forecast in July. The German group said that some customers placed orders only weeks ahead of schedule due to caution about the short-term global economy, less than the usual three to four months.

Germany Matthias Zachert, CEO of specialty chemicals www.xmniubi.company Lanxess, expressed caution optimism about the stabilization of demand by the end of the year, warning last month that the third quarter will be tough due to "terrible uncertainty."

However, small businesses such as family-owned specialty chemicals manufacturer Hobum Oleochemicals are calculating costs. One of its potential customers, a U.S. primer product supplier near Detroit, abandoned a deal that could have doubled sales, andOffsetting weakness in the European automotive industry.

"There is no longer any reliability. "This is totally a damaging factor for projects and investments for www.xmniubi.companies."

In addition to reducing demand, there are exchange rate risks. The disaster is not only singular, but also the headache of the dollar. Due to economic uncertainty and the weakening of the dollar, European www.xmniubi.companies feel the pressure of destocking in the United States to reduce demand and orders, as well as the depreciation of the dollar, which makes www.xmniubi.companies that use the euro to calculate profits worse.

Dolux paint maker AkzoNobel lowered its full-year growth forecast at the end of July, citing uncertainty in the market and adjusting the exchange rate.

German chemical www.xmniubi.company WACKER also lowered its full-year growth forecast in July, citing weaker U.S. dollar and weak demand for its products, including polysilicon used to make solar cells.

The trade surplus narrowed or even turned into a deficit, which was directly negative for the euro. "Christian Faitz, co-head of chemical industry research at KeplerCheuvreux, said: "The European chemical industry has basically slowed down continuously.

The EU exported about 40 billion euros worth of chemicals to the United States last year, slightly higher than 38 billion euros in 2023, according to industry association Cefic. This figure is higher than the 30 billion euros imported from the United States by the EU.

The local industry accounts for about one-third of the total sales abroad, about 224 billion euros, and most European www.xmniubi.companies have major operations in their main markets, including China, the world's largest chemical market.

"We are used to mass-producing products in Europe and exporting them in large quantities," said Arne Rautenberg, head of equity portfolio management at UnionInvestment. "Looking forward, the situation will no longer be like this.

Technical analysis:

Europe did not choose to break through after touching the upper track of bullish flag, but instead fell below 1.1667 (the 50% percentile of the negative line on August 25) means that the market will enter consolidation in the short term, and the trend will be temporarily taken over by the short side.

The first pressure level of the exchange rate is 1.1667, followed by the downward pressure line that forms the bullish flag, and the support level is around 1.1700, which is a intensive trading area between the 1.600 integer level and the multi-day opening and closing price. If it falls below, the next support level must be seen far away, and the lower track of the downward channel is around 1.1500.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: What's wrong with the euro? The entire content of the European Chemical Industry's "demand + exchange rate" double killing was carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for your support!

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What's wrong with the euro? European Chemical Industry is trapped in a double kill of "demand + exchange rate"

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What's wrong with the euro? European Chemical Industry is trapped in a double kill of "demand + exchange rate"

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