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The return rate is not as good as the confidence of the US dollar. Why is the euro's upside down?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The return rate will not change the confidence of the US dollar. Why is the euro always hitting the upper hand?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Before the US market on Wednesday (September 3), the euro/dollar was under pressure at the lower edge of the range and returned to below 1.1650 again. Previously, the euro had a technical rebound due to the "easy fiscal deficit concerns", but it was still in a weak volatility overall.

Fundamentals: data intertwined, yields fell, short-term pricing returned to the US data

In the euro zone, the service industry PMI final value in August recorded 50.7, down from 51 in July, indicating a slowdown in expansion; at the same time, the July PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, both faster than market expectations, providing more reasons to "observe inflation stickiness" before the ECB's interest rate appointment next week. Long-term interest rates fell from Tuesday's high, Germany's 30-year yield fell from the 3.44% line to below 3.40%, and France's product term yield also retreated to below 4.50%, but overall, still near the high level this year, reflecting that fiscal uncertainty has not been fully cleared. The cooling of yields has improved risk appetite to a certain extent, but has not changed the euro's short-term passive attitude.

On the US dollar, the global bond market was once sold, causing expectations of interest rate cuts to fall second, and the US dollar rose with support from safe haven and interest rate spreads. The current market focus refocuses on JOLTS job openings and factory orders in July. The former is expected to remain around 7.4 million (7.437 million in July), while the latter is expected to fall by 1.4% month-on-month, continuing to weaken after -4.8% in June; if it www.xmniubi.comes true, it will add fuel to the "slow growth" narrative and suppress the momentum of the US dollar. On the previous trading day, the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 48.0 in July to 48.7 in August, and is still in the contraction range, while S&PGlobal ManufacturingThe final value of the industry PMI was 53, a slight decline from 53.3 in July, and the report emphasized that prices and supply pressures remained (the disturbances related to the previous tariff imposition have not www.xmniubi.completely subsided). Overall, U.S. growth is not stalling, but the www.xmniubi.combination of "hot downshift" is being included in pricing.

Under such a macro framework, the marginal support of the euro www.xmniubi.comes from the decline in long-term yields in the euro zone and the "weak expectations" for US data; while the suppression force www.xmniubi.comes from the safe-haven attributes of the US dollar, and the political and fiscal issues of Europe are still fluctuating at high levels. The two forces are involved, causing the exchange rate to repeat within the narrow range of 1.16-1.17, lacking a unilateral trend.

Technical:

The four-hour K-line shows that the middle rail of the Bollinger band is located at 1.1673, the upper rail is 1.1734, and the lower rail is 1.1612; the latest price is operating in the 1.1640 area and is still close to the lower rail, indicating that the short-term is in a state of "weak oscillation-below the mean". Recently, the price has been "belt-on" near the lower rail many times, and the stage lows are 1.1582, 1.1573 and 1.1607 in turn, indicating that although the buying orders below have taken over, the strength is not uniform; the upper stage highs 1.1692, 1.1742 and 1.1738 form a dense resistance band, which coincides with the upper rail to form a "pressure top".

In terms of kinetic energy indicators, MACD shows that DIFF is -0.0007, DEA is -0.0001, and the bar chart is -0.0012. It is located below the zero axis and the negative kinetic energy value converges and expands again, implying that the rebound momentum is insufficient and the bears still have a passive advantage; if DIFF continues to run below the DEA and stays away from the zero axis, the weakness will continue. The relative strength index RSI (14) is 45.4175, which is in the "weak neutral range" and does not give an oversold signal, which means that from the perspective of oscillating structure, there is still room for the price to repeat between the middle and lower rails.

In terms of structure and stairs, the Bollinger middle orbit of 1.1673 and the recent intra-disk blocked position of 1.1665 form a "dynamic-static" resonance resistance; if it cannot be recovered and stabilized above 1.1673, the mean regression is difficult to establish. Further resistance above focuses on 1.1692 and upper track 1.1734, followed by the front high-density zone of 1.1738-1.1742. If there is no large-scale breakthrough here, a "false breakthrough-regression" pattern is likely to appear; on the contrary, once MACD zero axis crosses and RSI breaks 50, it is expected to reverse the short-term pattern from "weak oscillation" to "upward repair". The lower support is first at 1.1612 (Bollinger's lower track), and the lower ones are the previous low clusters of 1.1607 and 1.1582/1.1573 in turn. Any effective break will open up the retracement space to a lower price and trigger a new round of trend extension. Overall, the current price is still in the box oscillation of "below the middle rail and above the lower rail". The key lies in the directional breakthrough of the two "mean-extreme" thresholds of 1.1673 and 1.1612.

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The return rate is not as good as the confidence of the US dollar. Why is the euro's upside down?

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The return rate is not as good as the confidence of the US dollar. Why is the euro's upside down?

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