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Fed officials send a signal of interest rate cuts, the dollar index fluctuates near the 98 mark

Wonderful introduction:

Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Federal Reserve officials released a signal of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index fluctuated near the 98 mark." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday, the US dollar index consolidated above the 98 mark, and the US dollar fell against the yen and Swiss franc on Wednesday. Previous economic data showed weak labor market conditions, supporting investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve to relax monetary policy. This trading day will be released on the number of layoffs of challenger www.xmniubi.companies in the United States in August, changes in the number of ADP jobs in the United States in August, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 30, and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August. In addition, the US Senate Financial www.xmniubi.committee held a hearing on the nomination of Milan as the Federal Reserve Board. FOMC Permanent Voting www.xmniubi.committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams will speak at the New York Economic Club, and investors need to pay attention.

Analysis of major currencies

U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.17. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, and some traders even bet on the third rate cut in early 2026. The Fed's dovish tendency remains the main driving force behind the continued weakness of the US dollar, which also makes the US dollar the worst performer in 2025, with a decline of nearly 10% year-to-date. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is currently slightly above the 50-day moving average support level of 98.000. If the day's high is 98.635, it may further move towards 98.834 or even 99.320 points. However, if the 98.000 point cannot be maintained, the selling pressure may intensify, and the US dollar index may fall to 97.859, and further downward targets will be towards 97.536 and 97.109.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1658, and the euro/dollar cut some of its losses on Wednesday, although it still failed to break the 1.1700 mark, despite the general weakness of the U.S. dollar in all respects. U.S. economic data enhances the possibility that the Fed will resume a loose cycle at its September meeting. Improved market sentiment prompted investors to buy the euro after a poor performance in the July Job Vacancy and Labor Movement Survey (JOLTS). As the number of job openings decreased and factory orders plummeted, the US dollar depreciated against a single currency. Technically, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned bullish, it is still far from breaking its latest high, indicating that consolidation is the main trend over the past 14 days. However, if EUR/USD breaks through the September 1 high of 1.1736, it is possible to test 1.1800 and the year-over-year high of 1.1829. Otherwise, if the daily close below 1.1650, it may hit the 1.1600 mark followed by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1520.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3440. GBP/USD rebounded from a low on Wednesday and returned to above 1.3400. Previously, market sentiment recovered slightly, causing GBP to rebound from a four-week low below 1.3350. While broad market investor sentiment tends to risk appetite and traders are eager for a Fed rate cut, dovish remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey have curbed the pound’s gains. Technically, GBP/USD continues to fluctuate around the 50-day index moving average (EMA) near 1.3460, although recent price movements reveal the short-term pressure the pair may face. Testing below 1.3400 again could cause the pair to enter a new downward trend, while the market's general dollar sell-off recovery could bring the pair back to a multi-year high above 1.3600.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activities in most jurisdictions have almost no change. Prices have risen in all regions

The Federal Reserve Beige Book report shows that economic activities in most parts of the United States in recent weeks have "almost no or no change." “Most of the reports in the 12 jurisdictions have reported little or no changes in economic activity since the last Beige Book,” the report released Wednesday reads. “In each jurisdiction, contacts reported that consumer spending remained flat to a decline, as many residents’ wages failed to keep up with the pace of price increases.” The Beige Book said that prices rose in all regions, with 10 of which reported inflation “moderate or gentler” and two other jurisdictions reported that inflation was “moderate or mild” and that the other two reported that the price was reported by the Beige Book."Strong growth in investment prices". “Almost all jurisdictions have mentioned tariff-related price increases, and contacts in many jurisdictions have reported particularly significant impacts on input prices,” the report said.

2. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 96.6%. According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 96.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 1.6%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 51.6%.

3. The credibility of the Federal Reserve is shaken, and the European Central Bank seeks alternatives to the US dollar liquidity

As the US dollar is dragged down by political factors, central banks in Europe are reassessing their dependence on the Federal Reserve. Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, called on the ECB to explore joint efforts with other central banks to gather dollar reserves to ensure emergency liquidity supply when Fed support is ineffective during the crisis. Although the Fed renewed currency swap agreements with several central banks earlier this year, the global dollar financing market is huge (estimated to $29 trillion), while foreign dollar reserves hold only $7 trillion, meaning any alternative arrangement can only deal with local events. These concerns have prompted ECB regulators to monitor European banks’ dollar exposure more closely and accelerate efforts such as digital euro research and development.

4. Fed rate cuts and political intervention weaken dollar support. Market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and some traders even bet on the third rate cut in early 2026. The Fed's dovish tendency remains the main driving force behind the continued weakness of the US dollar, which also makes the US dollar the worst performer in 2025, with a decline of nearly 10% year-to-date. The popular "short US dollar" theme since the end of March has further heated up. A Reuters survey conducted between August 29 and September 3 showed that 78% of respondents expected that the dollar's net short position would either increase or remain stable as of September. It is worth noting that among the foreign exchange strategists interviewed, no one expected the US dollar position to reverse to a net long position. Continuous political intervention also puts pressure on market sentiment. President Trump calls for a sharp drop in interest rates to 1% and attempts to remove Fed Director Lisa Cook, which has sparked new concerns about the Fed's independence. These concerns have been further exacerbated by Fed candidate Stephen Miran's proposal to strengthen the president's control over the Fed, including the right to remove the Fed's leadership.

5. Recurring fiscal concerns trigger global bond market turmoil. Japanese bond auctions face more uncertainty.

The 30-year Treasury bond auction held in Japan on Thursday faces more uncertainty caused by global debt market turmoil and domestic political instability. Political instability re-invigorates people's fiscal policyConcerns about the prospects. Investors are worried that the issuance of Japan's Ministry of Finance may face challenges in this bond issuance amid increasing doubts about debt sustainability and inflation remains stubborn. Although the 10-year Treasury auction earlier this week received good demand, the 30-year yield followed the decline in European and American long-term bonds in trading on Wednesday, soaring to a record high of 3.285%. Globally, ultra-long-term bonds have been under pressure again recently as fiscal concerns in major developed markets resurfaced, and institutional investors including insurance www.xmniubi.companies and pensions have turned to avoid long-term bonds.

Institutional View

1. Royal Bank of Canada: The rising yields in Japan has caused local investors to face "major changes". The capital markets department of Royal Bank of Canada pointed out that as Japan's yields rise attract domestic investors to keep their funds at home rather than holding foreign assets, the global currency and interest rate market is ushering in a major change. "For the first time since 2020, Japanese investors have achieved sufficiently attractive local investment yields. In the near future, Japanese investors' attitudes to buying any point bonds on the Japanese Treasury curve will be consistent with U.S. bonds." The continued rise in Japanese government debt yields has been the focus of global investors since Bank of Japan abandoned ultra-loose monetary policy a year ago - which has also been highlighted as the risks facing U.S. bond demand. Despite this, foreign demand for U.S. bonds remain resilient, and the recent surge in long-term yields in Japan has surpassed major similar products, dragging back returns on holding these securities.

2. Deutsche Bank: Powell makes this week's non-farm data particularly important

www.xmniubi.commerz Bank foreign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke pointed out that in his speech at Jackson Hall annual meeting, Powell emphasized the downside risks faced by the economy and employment - to balance the interest rate cut expectations of colleagues from the U.S. government, market and Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market www.xmniubi.committee with the inflation risks that may be triggered by tariffs - the current labor market data has attracted much attention than usual, and the impact weight of this data will also increase significantly. This naturally also means that if the labor market data is lower than expected, it may further significantly boost the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts, and may even re-induce market expectations for one or more 50 basis points rate cuts. If this happens, I expect the dollar to suffer another heavy blow. If the ADP data released tomorrow is lower than expected (the market consensus is 80,000), it may lay the foundation for this bearish sentiment in the US dollar - although the index ultimately means little to the prediction of Friday's non-farm data.

3. Institutions: The potential boost to the US dollar trend will be very limited.

On August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hall Global Central Bank annual meeting that the downside risks faced by the labor market are rising, adding that "the tightening of immigration policies has led to a sudden slowdown in labor growth." Coincidentally, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly also pointed out that due to the inability to immediately determine theWhether the tax-related price increase is a one-time phenomenon, and waiting for certain evidence may cause damage to the labor market, so the Federal Reserve cannot do so. Although the current market holdings indicate limited downward space for the US dollar, if the JOLTS report shows that the number of job vacancies has dropped sharply, it may further confirm that the situation in the US labor market has deteriorated, and the US dollar may be under pressure after the data is released. On the contrary, if the data is better than expected, it is unlikely to change the market's existing expectations for the Fed's policy outlook, so the potential boost to the US dollar trend will be very limited.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Federal Reserve officials released a signal of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index fluctuated near the 98 mark". It was carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Fed officials send a signal of interest rate cuts, the dollar index fluctuates near the 98 mark

Analysis of major currencies

1. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activities in most jurisdictions have almost no change. Prices have risen in all regions

3. The credibility of the Federal Reserve is shaken, and the European Central Bank seeks alternatives to the US dollar liquidity

5. Recurring fiscal concerns trigger global bond market turmoil. Japanese bond auctions face more uncertainty.

Institutional View

2. Deutsche Bank: Powell makes this week's non-farm data particularly important

3. Institutions: The potential boost to the US dollar trend will be very limited.

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

Fed officials send a signal of interest rate cuts, the dollar index fluctuates near the 98 mark

Analysis of major currencies

1. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activities in most jurisdictions have almost no change. Prices have risen in all regions

3. The credibility of the Federal Reserve is shaken, and the European Central Bank seeks alternatives to the US dollar liquidity

5. Recurring fiscal concerns trigger global bond market turmoil. Japanese bond auctions face more uncertainty.

Institutional View

2. Deutsche Bank: Powell makes this week's non-farm data particularly important

3. Institutions: The potential boost to the US dollar trend will be very limited.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason