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Where did the US dollar stabilize and the data retreat before the euro?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The dollar stabilizes + where does the data retreat before the euro?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the early European session on Tuesday (September 2), the euro/dollar ended its three consecutive positives, and the exchange rate fell from around the 1.17 line. The latest price fluctuated in the 1.1630 area, which has cooled significantly www.xmniubi.compared with the highs around Monday around 1.1735. Market risk appetite has declined, the US dollar has strengthened under risk aversion, and the www.xmniubi.combination of "slightly hot and unchanged" inflation in the euro zone has not changed the market's judgment on the European Central Bank (ECB)'s short-term remain unchanged.
Fundamentals:
Eurozone's CPI in August was 2.1% year-on-year, higher than the market expectations of 2.0%; the core CPI was 2.2% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and higher than the consensus expected to fall slightly to 2.2%. In line with the recent macro performance of the euro zone, the market interprets it as "inflation is not weak but there is no need to increase easing", thus providing a basis for the tone of "maintaining interest rates unchanged" interest rate next week. ECB director Isabel Schnabel said on the same day that interest rates are still "moderately easing" and there is no need for further relaxation in the short term; Lagarde stressed on Monday that concerns about the French banking system were exaggerated, and said that economic uncertainty was "significantly reduced", implying that monetary policy may remain stable after September. At the same time, the final value of the Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI has been revised up from the estimated 50.5 to 50.7, which is the first time that it has returned to the expansion range in the past three years. Although it is not strong, it has a certain confidence in the euro.
On the US dollar side, there was a rebound after the previous period of decline. Disputes over the independence and policy path of the Federal Reserve are constantly disturbing, and the www.xmniubi.comments from senior finance departments on "the Federal Reserve has made many mistakes" have not calmed down market sentiment; the legal disputes about the www.xmniubi.committee are also fermenting, causing short-term uncertainty to rise. However, in terms of data, the United States will welcome this weekIntensive tests: Manufacturing and Services activity data, as well as Friday’s non-farm employment report, will provide key clues to the September policy implementation. As for the current consensus, the ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to rebound from 48 to 49, and is still in a contraction range, indicating that the momentum at the manufacturing end is weak. The above www.xmniubi.combination forms a two-way pull of "the US dollar is resonant with risk aversion and data prospects, and the euro is supported by fundamental resilience."
Technical:
From the 240-minute K-line, the exchange rate formed a significant retracement after rising on Monday. Bollinger bands show: upper rail 1.1743, middle rail 1.1669, lower rail 1.1595. The recent high has been touched to the vicinity of the two marking positions 1.1742 and 1.1736 (corresponding to the resistance zone near the upper rail). Then the continuous negative line presses the price back below the middle rail, currently hovering at 1.1635, with about 40 points of buffering from the lower rail. The lower front low 1.1582/1.1573 is a key support belt in stages, forming a "multi-support cluster" with Bollinger's lower rail 1.1595.
MACD: DIFF0.0005, DEA0.0012, MACD column-0.0013, the zero axis is enlarged again, indicating that the short-term kinetic energy has changed from long to short and has continued. RSI(14) is at 40.9088, which is lower than neutral and has not yet entered extreme oversold, but has released a signal of "weak oscillation to a bearish trend". After the price falls below the Bollinger middle rail 1.1669, if the rebound is blocked from the middle rail and the repeated backtesting fails, a typical downward organizational structure of "middle rail to turn pressure" will be formed; on the contrary, if it can quickly recover and stabilize above the middle rail, it can redirect the dense resistance of 1.1736/1.1742 above. In terms of overall pattern, the 4-hour K-line shows the rhythm of "upper track is under pressure - middle track falls below - pointing to the lower track". The short-term trend is beneficial to the bears, but the support intensity of the range 1.1595-1.1573 below cannot be underestimated.
Key Position Clean:
Resistance: 1.1669 (Bolling middle rail, first resistance), 1.1714 (stage rebound high mark), 1.1736/1.1742 (upward strong resistance), 1.1743 (Bolling upper rail).
Support: 1.1600 (integer threshold), 1.1595 (Ballling lower rail), 1.1582/1.1573 (double front low).
Prevention of market sentiment:
This cycle of decline is accompanied by "heating heat up + uncertain data prospects", the US dollar has received passive buying, and liquidity is biased towards the US dollar side; the euro side is supported by the fundamentals of "inflation is not weak + policy remains unchanged", and bear sentiment may be difficult to unilaterally crush strong support. From the perspective of the emotional cycle, short-term long positions accumulated in the previous period have a tendency to "profit settlement and risk hedging". In addition, the US data is approaching, volatility is expected to rise but the direction is not fully priced. Sentiment indicators are not at the extreme, and RSI has not yet entered the traditional oversold zone, which means that although shorts take the lead, they are not "crowded trading". Once external disturbances ease or data fall below expectations, short cover may trigger technicalRebound; on the contrary, if the US data resilience exceeds expectations and risk aversion continues to ferment, sentiment may quickly slide to the stage of "short-term panic-lower track test".
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The dollar stabilizes + where does the data retreat before the euro?". It was carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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