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What impact does Trump’s attack on the independence of the Fed? Economists warn that it may trigger long-term inflation risks

Wonderful Introduction:

The moon has phases, people have joys and sorrows, whether life has changes, the year has four seasons, after the long night, you can see dawn, suffer pain, you can have happiness, endure the cold winter, you don’t need to lie down, and after all the cold plums, you can look forward to the New Year.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: What impact does Trump attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve? Economists warn that it may trigger long-term inflation risks." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

According to the Associated Press in Washington, U.S. President Trump's attempt to remove members of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors has sparked vigilance from economists and legal experts who believe it is the biggest threat to the Fed's independence in decades.

This move could affect the daily lives of most Americans: Economists worry that if Trump gets his wish to get a loyal Fed who is willing to cut short-term interest rates significantly, the result is likely to lead to inflation and increase borrowing costs such as housing mortgages, auto loans and corporate loans over time.

Trump tried to fire Fed Director Lisa Cook last week, setting a record for the first time the president tried to remove the director in the Fed's 112-year history.

Trump claimed the move was based on allegations raised by his appointees, saying Cook was suspected of housing mortgage fraud.

Cook argued in a lawsuit aimed at preventing the removal that the allegations were just a cover for Trump's real purpose, and that the real purpose was to seek more control over the Fed. The court may decide next week whether to temporarily block the dismissal of Cook during the case trial.

Cook is accused of declaring two properties as primary residences at the same time before joining the council in July 2021 - a move that could result in him receiving a lower mortgage interest rate than declaring a second residence or investing in the property. She hinted in the lawsuit that this could be a documentary error, but did not respond directly to the allegations.

Federal independence is "a life hangs on the line".

Trump and his administration members have made no secret of their intention to strengthen control over the Fed. Trump repeatedly asked the Fed to cut key interest rates sharply from the current 4.3%1.3%. Before trying to fire Cook, Trump had repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering short-term interest rates and threatened to remove him from office.

Trump said last Tuesday: "We will get a majority soon, which will be a good thing." His statement means that if Cook is successfully replaced, his appointees will control the Fed's board of directors by a 4-3 vote.

Jon Foster, an economist at Johns Hopkins University and former adviser to Powell, pointed out: "The case of Director Cook itself is far less important than the escalating trend of the impact of the Federal Reserve as shown in this action. In my opinion, the independence of the Federal Reserve is indeed on the verge of death."

Although some economists also believe that the Fed should speed up the rate cut, almost no one agrees with Trump's claim of 3 percentage points cut. Powell has sent signals that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

Why do economists praise the independence of the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve has a wide influence on the US economy. By lowering its controlled short-term interest rates (usually in a downturn), the Fed can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate spending, growth and employment; and when it raises interest rates to cope with inflation-induced price increases, it can curb the economy and lead to a decrease in jobs.

Most economists have long been more inclined to be independent central bank systems because they can take unpopular measures that elected officials often avoid. Economic research shows that countries with independent central banks can usually maintain low inflation levels.

However, elected officials like Trump are more motivated to push for rate cuts, because it will make it easier for people to purchase real estate vehicles and boost the economy in the short term.

Political intervention in the Federal Reserve may exacerbate inflation

Douglas Elmendorf, an economist at Harvard University and former director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, said Trump's claim to cut interest rates by 3 percentage points will overstimulate the economy, push consumer demand beyond economic capacity and push up inflation - exactly the same as during the epidemic.

Elmendorf warned: "If the Fed is controlled by the president, the United States may continue to face higher inflation in the www.xmniubi.coming years."

While the Fed controls short-term interest rates, financial markets determine long-term borrowing costs such as mortgages. If investors are concerned about continued high inflation, higher yields in Treasury bonds will be required, thereby pushing up overall economic borrowing costs.

Taking Türkiye as an example: President Erdogan forced the central bank to maintain low interest rates in the early 2020s, when inflation had soared to 85%. Inflation was not eased until 2023 when central banks were allowed to exercise more independence, but in order to curb inflation, short-term interest rates rose to 50%, and are still at 46%.

There are also precedents of presidential intervention in the Federal Reserve in the United States: Lyndon Johnson increased government spending for Vietnam War and anti-poverty programs in the mid-1960s, and coerced William McChesney Martin, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, to maintain low interest rates; Richard NeeMr. Kerson pressed then-Chairman Arthur Burns to avoid hikes before the 1972 election. These two incidents are widely believed to be the culprit of the persistent high inflation from the 1960s to the 1970s.

Trump also argued that the Federal Reserve system should lower interest rates so that the federal government can more easily finance its huge $37 trillion debt. However, this could distract the Federal Reserve system from its ability to perform Congress-mandated duties to keep inflation and unemployment low.

Technical reflects market reaction

Indicators used to measure the degree of exchange rate changes of the US dollar against a basket of currencies—the US dollar index has performed relatively weak in recent years, and is in a low-level consolidation pattern. It has continued to decline since Trump tried to fire Fed Director Lisa Cook last Tuesday, and it fell slightly on Monday (September 1). It is currently trading around 97.70.

The battle between independence and accountability

The president can indeed exert influence by appointing members of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors (need to be approved by the Senate), but the Federal Reserve was designed as an institution to isolate short-term political pressure at the beginning of its establishment. The term of directors is staggered and lasts for 14 years, precisely to ensure that a single president cannot appoint too many members.

Jane Manners, a law professor at Fordham University, pointed out: "Congress has a profound meaning in creating independent institutions such as the Federal Reserve: they prefer decisions based on professional capabilities and from an objective and neutral perspective rather than decisions that are www.xmniubi.completely influenced by political pressure."

However, Trump administration officials claim that the Fed's democratic accountability needs to be enhanced. Vice President JD Vance said in an interview with USA Today: "Those who claim that the president has no right to interfere in this matter are essentially saying that seven economists and lawyers should make extremely critical decisions for Americans without democratic input."

Steff Milan, a senior White House economic adviser, wrote an article last year to advocate restructuring the Federal Reserve system, including significantly simplifying the procedures for the president to remove directors. "The overall goal of this design is to achieve the economic benefits brought by an independent central bank while maintaining the necessary accountability level of democratic society." Trump has nominated Milan to join the Federal Reserve Board of Directors to succeed Adriana Coogler, who resigned unexpectedly on August 1.

More turmoil may be faced in the future

Although Trump has continued to attack Powell for months, his administration currently seems to be more focused on the overall structural reform of the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve interest rate resolution was jointly formulated by seven directors, including Powell, and a www.xmniubi.committee www.xmniubi.composed of presidents of 12 regional Fed banks including New York, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Five regional presidents have voting rights in each meeting, the New York Fed president has permanent voting rights, and the remaining four vote in rotation.

While the regional Fed president is selected by its local board of directors, the Washington Fed's board of directors has the right to vote against the appointment. All 12 presidents will need to be re-approved in February next year. If the board of directors rejects one or more of the presidents' re-election, may cause greater controversy.

Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, pointed out: "The most extreme situation is... interfering with the reappointment process of regional Fed presidents, (which will mean) a signal that things are truly out of control."

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