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The US-Japan exchange rate has gone out of Chang Shangying, 146.70 is the last line of defense for the bulls?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The US-Japan exchange rate has gone out of the Chang Shangying, 146.70 is the last line of defense for the longs?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (September 1), the US dollar rose 0.22% against the Japanese yen in the early trading session to 147.37. After that, the exchange rate failed to continue the rebound momentum in the early trading session, the increase narrowed, and walked out of the positive line with a long upper shadow. It is now trading around 147.10, up 0.04%.汇率始终处于147.50关口下方运行。 From the perspective of market drivers, Russia launched a large-scale military strike against Ukraine, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to escalate. Under the fermentation of dual geopolitical risks, the yen, which has the attributes of hedging, has gained potential support; at the same time, the market's expectations that the Bank of Japan will soon launch interest rate hikes continue to strengthen, further providing a basis for the decline of the US-Japan exchange rate.
It is worth noting that the current hawkish pricing of the Bank of Japan policy is in sharp contrast to the Federal Reserve's bets to www.xmniubi.complete two interest rate cuts before the end of 2025. This kind of policy expectation differentiation not only curbs the US dollar bulls' willingness to enter the market, but also has a substantial suppression of the US dollar-JPY exchange rate. In addition, US macroeconomic data will be released intensively at the beginning of this month, and traders generally choose to wait and see and do not make aggressive directional bets for the time being. This cautious sentiment also restricts US dollar bulls.
The fundamentals data are improving, and the yen is supported
In August, S&P Global Japan's manufacturing PMI final value was 49.7. Although it is still below the boom and bust line, it shows that the deterioration in the industry's operating conditions has narrowed, and it is only slightly shrinking, and the marginal improvement of the prosperity.
According to data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance on Monday, capital expenditure of corporate factory equipment increased by 7.6% year-on-year in the 4th to 6th quarter of 2025 (the second quarter of the Japanese fiscal year), and capital expenditure resilience provides certain support for economic fundamentals.
Elevation of geopolitical conflict highlights the yen's risk aversion attribute
GeogenesisIn terms of the situation, US President Trump made it clear in an interview with Daily Caller that he was skeptical of the possibility of a bilateral meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, and the uncertainty of geopolitical game further increased.
Last weekend, Russia launched a large-scale air strike on Ukraine, using more than 500 drones and 45 missiles; in response, Zelensky stated that he would retaliate and ordered more strikes on deep targets in Russia, and the intensity of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was significantly escalated.
In Israel, the Israeli army fought in concert with the air and the ground overnight to carry out intensive strikes on the suburbs of Gaza; Israeli Defense Minister Katz confirmed that Hamas' armed faction spokesman Abu Ubaida had been shot dead, and the situation in the conflict between Palestinian and Israel continued to be tense.
The above-mentioned geopolitical risks continue to ferment, providing upward thrust for the yen with safe-haven attributes; and the market's expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes further consolidate the support foundation of the yen.
The Fed's dovish turn toward expectations is rising, which is good for the yen
In contrast, on the dollar side, traders' current pricing of Fed policies has clearly turned to easing - the market believes that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September and www.xmniubi.completing two interest rate cuts before the end of the year has increased significantly.
The policy expectations of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will continue to be positive for the low-interest currency, the Japanese yen; in addition, the current US dollar is in a relatively short pattern, and the upward space of the US dollar against the Japanese yen will be strictly restricted.
It should be noted that the US market was closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday, and liquidity was relatively light; and key macro data in the United States, including non-agricultural industries, will be released this week. Before that, traders are likely to remain cautious and will not conduct aggressive directional operations for the time being.
Technical analysis:
From a technical analysis, the US dollar against the Japanese yen is still subject to the four-circular box range. The lower edge of the range is anchored near 146.70, and this position needs to be regarded as a key support - if the exchange rate can fall below, it is considered a short-selling gun. If the rebound does not exceed 146.70 after falling below, the exchange rate is likely to fall to the area near the August low of 146.21, and then advance to the 146.00 integer mark; once a follow-up sell-off occurs, it will become a new trigger signal for the shorts of the currency pair, opening up space for subsequent deep pullbacks.
On the contrary, if the exchange rate breaks through the resistance range of 147.50-147.70 upward, although it may temporarily release upward action energy, you need to be wary of the selling pressure before 148.00 on the upper integer mark - this position is the upper edge of the current trading range and is the key long-short dividing point.
If it can break through 148.00 decisively, it will trigger the short-term rebound and push the exchange rate toward the recent high of 148.75-148.80; and the area is close to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If the exchange rate can stabilize at 149.00, the short-term trend will reverse and officially turn to bull dominance.
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