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The US dollar index may face sharp fluctuations this week
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Big Non-agricultural Superimposed Beige Book, the US dollar index may fluctuate violently this week." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market prospect: Big non-agricultural plus brown paper, the US dollar index may face sharp fluctuations this week
XM forward: The importance of economic data to be released this week from high to low is: the US August non-agricultural employment report, euro zone CPI data, Federal Reserve Beige Book, and the speech of European Central Bank Governor Lagarde. Next, the interpretation will be made one by one.
▲XM chart
This Friday at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the U.S. non-farm employment report in August. The most popular data is the new non-farm employment population, with the previous value of 73,000, and the expected value is 75,000, and the expected value is relatively low. Labor market conditions are the most core factor affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at this stage. Once the number of new non-farm employment drops severely or the unemployment rate rises sharply, it will lead to the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates early, and the US index will suffer a serious impact. According to experience, the non-agricultural employment population data of more than 200,000 people will boost the US index, and the non-agricultural employment population of 100,000 to 200,000 is weak in boosting the US index. If the non-farm employment population falls below 100,000, the U.S. dollar index will usually be affected by negative factors regardless of whether the latest value is higher than the previous value and expected value. At 20:15 this Thursday, the US ADP small non-farm data will be released, with the previous value of 104,000 people and the expected value of 68,000 people. The expected value has dropped significantly www.xmniubi.compared with the previous value, which means that the large non-farm data on Friday may be very unoptimistic. However, the three major U.S. stock indexes all showed a big rise in August and made a recordA record high. The stock market is a forward-looking indicator of the labor market. When the stock market rises sharply, the labor market has the possibility of a better future.
▲XM chart
This Tuesday at 17:00, the European Statistics Office will announce the initial value of the euro zone's August CPI annual rate, with the previous value of 2%, and the expected value remained the same; the initial value of the euro zone's core CPI annual rate was announced at the same time, with the previous value of 2.3%, and the expected value was 2.2%. Central banks in various countries generally regard the inflation rate of 2 to 3% as a signal of a healthy economic recovery. The expected values of the euro zone's nominal CPI and core CPI in August are both within this range, which means that the euro zone economy is performing well at this stage. This is also why the ECB dared to announce a suspension of interest rate cuts in its July interest rate resolution. We believe that under the premise that the euro zone CPI data has not deviated significantly from the range of 2~3%, the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged and the euro will continue to be boosted.
▲XM chart
This Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its sixth Beige Book of the year. Market participants hope to find clues about the direction of the US macroeconomic and the time when the Federal Reserve restarts interest rate cuts. Since the writing format of each brown book is basically the same, we can find changes in the Fed's attitude in different texts and numerical expressions of the old and new brown books. In the July Beige Book, mentioned: Five regions reported slight or moderate growth, with activity flat in the five regions and activity slightly declined in the remaining two regions. If more than five regions reporting economic growth and less than two regions declining economic activity in the Beige Book released this week, the US macroeconomic performance is good and the US dollar index will be boosted.
▲XM chart
This Wednesday at 15:30, ECB President Lagarde will deliver an opening speech at the ESRB annual meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, focusing on his views on the path of macroeconomic and monetary policy. The full name of ESRB is European SystemicRiskBoard, which is literally translated as the European Systemic Risk www.xmniubi.committee. This conference is the 9th Annual Meeting of ESRB, with the theme of "The Impact of the Next 10 Years", which lasts for a day. If Lagarde publishes the US tariff policy, the ECB's monetary policy, and the EU's policy toward Ukraine at this meeting, it may have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times,Analysts' opinions may change and updates will not be notified separately.
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