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The "tug-of-war" after PCE data, key support levels usher in the final stress test before "non-farm"

Wonderful introduction:

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The "tug-of-war" of long and shorts after PCE data, and the key support level ushers in the final stress test before "non-agricultural". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (August 29), the U.S. Department of www.xmniubi.commerce released the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data for July, and the market responded quickly and www.xmniubi.complexly. Data shows that the PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, in line with expectations, with year-on-year growth remaining at 2.6%, the same as June; the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth rising from 2.8% in June to 2.9%, slightly higher than market expectations. This data reflects that US consumer spending is still stable, but inflationary pressure has risen, especially the acceleration of core inflation, which has triggered heated discussions in the market about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. www.xmniubi.combined with the real-time interpretation of institutions and retail investors, this article will conduct in-depth analysis of the market trends after the release of this PCE data from the perspectives of market background, real-time market conditions, emotional changes and future trends.

Market background and market overview

Earing 2025, the global financial market remains highly sensitive under the interweaving of multiple factors. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has maintained a policy interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% since December last year, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in September have gradually heated up; on the other hand, Trump's tariff remarks continue to inject uncertainty into the market, resulting in an increase in corporate costs and a recovery in inflation expectations. , Long before the data was released, some retail investors had heated discussions on the potential impact of PCE data. For example, some analysts pointed out that if the core PCE exceeds expectations, it may further weaken the market's confidence in interest rate cuts; and if the data is moderate, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts in September.

PCE data for July showed that U.S. consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month-on-month, higher than in JuneThe revised 0.4% shows that consumption momentum is still strong. This is closely related to low unemployment rates and solid wage growth. However, the core PCE increased by 2.9% year-on-year, setting a recent high, indicating that inflationary pressure has not www.xmniubi.completely subsided. The market's interpretation of this is polarized: institutional investors tend to focus on the impact of data on Fed policies, while retail investors focus more on short-term asset price fluctuations.

Instant market response and emotional changes

After the release of PCE data, the market response was rapid and differentiated. After the data was released, the US dollar index fell 5 points in the short term to 98.0260, but then rebounded rapidly, up about 6 points from before the announcement, indicating that the market's digestion process of data is full of twists and turns. Spot gold rose 4 USD to $3,409.67 per ounce in the short term, reflecting the brief rise in risk aversion sentiment. The three major U.S. stock indexes volatility intensified after the data was released, the Nasdaq www.xmniubi.composite Index's intraday decline once expanded to 0.8%, while the S&P 500 Index looked for directions in a narrow range of fluctuations.

Institutional View: Well-known institutional analysts generally believe that although the July PCE data showed that core inflation slightly exceeded expectations, the overall situation is still within the acceptable range of the Federal Reserve. A certain institution pointed out that although the year-on-year increase of core PCE was higher than 2.8% in June, it was still far from the "red line" that triggered a policy shift. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear at the Jackson Hall meeting last week that rising labor market risks may prompt policy adjustments, and the probability of a rate cut in September has further climbed to 90%, higher than 85% before the data was released. Institutional analysis also emphasized that the steady growth of consumer spending provides a buffer for the economy, but the rise in costs caused by tariff rhetoric by www.xmniubi.companies may further push up inflation in the www.xmniubi.coming months, and it is necessary to pay close attention to inventory digestion and price transmission.

Retail investors' views: Retail investors' reactions are more emotional. Some retail investors believe that the rise in core PCE reflects the "stickiness" of inflation and may force the Fed to delay interest rate cuts or adopt a more cautious pace of interest rate cuts. For example, some retail investors pointed out: "Tonight's PCE data slightly exceeded expectations, there is obvious signs of inflation rebound, a 25 basis point rate cut may be more stable, and the expectation of 50 basis points will cool down." However, some retail investors are optimistic about short-term market fluctuations, believing that the brief pullback of gold and US stocks is a "reversal" and accumulating momentum for subsequent rises. www.xmniubi.compared with expectations before the data was released, retail investors' interpretation of PCE data has shifted from "focusing on non-agricultural areas" to "inflation data may dominate short-term market sentiment", showing the rapid switching of the market focus after the data was released.

Sentence changes: From the perspective of market sentiment, risk aversion sentiment before the release of PCE data has been reflected, and some retail investors are worried that inflation data may cause market turmoil. After the data was released, risk aversion sentiment briefly heated up, but the rapid rebound of the US dollar index and the moderate rise in gold prices showed that the market was not in panic, but was more digesting the impact of data on the pace of interest rate cuts. In contrast, institutional investors tend to put data in a long-term framework for analysis, believing that the current inflation level is not enoughShake the Fed's path to cut interest rates, but the risk of inflation upward in the future needs to be vigilant.

Impact on the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and market trends

The release of PCE data in July further strengthened the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, but the differences in the extent of interest rate cuts still exist. Before the data was released, the market's probability of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point cut was 70% and 30% respectively; after the data was released, the probability of a 25 basis point rises to 80%, indicating that the market's expectations for a moderate rate cut dominate. The accelerated rise in core PCE has worried some investors that the Fed may quickly tighten its policies after a rate cut to curb further inflation. However, Powell's recent focus on labor market risks, coupled with weak employment data in July (only 35,000 new jobs, far lower than 123,000 in the same period in 2024), provides a sufficient reason for interest rate cuts.

From the market trend, the rebound of the US dollar index after the release of PCE data shows the market's sensitivity to inflation data, but the narrow fluctuations in US stocks indicate that investors are still weighing the balance between economic fundamentals and policy expectations. The brief rise in gold prices reflects a brief release of safe-haven demand, but the overall increase is limited, indicating that market concerns about rising inflation have not yet escalated into systemic risks. Some retail investors regard the pullback of US stocks as a short-term adjustment rather than a trend reversal. It is expected that the performance of subsequent financial report seasons will become the key to the market direction.

Future trend prospect

Looking forward, market trends will continue to evolve in the game of multiple factors. In the short term, the Fed's interest rate agenda meeting in September will become the market focus. The moderate exceeding expectations of PCE data may prompt the Fed to adopt a more cautious interest rate cut strategy, with a higher probability of a 25 basis point cut. In the medium term, the steady growth of consumer spending provides support for the economy, but the rise in costs caused by tariff rhetoric may gradually spread to the consumer side in the www.xmniubi.coming months, pushing up inflation expectations. Institutional analysis pointed out that the digestion speed of corporate inventory and price transmission efficiency will be key variables. If inventory continues to decline, inflation pressure may further emerge by the end of 2025.

For US stocks, the current bull market has lasted for two years, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq www.xmniubi.comprehensive Index hitting new highs, but recent volatility has increased, indicating that the market's sensitivity to high valuation and inflation risks has increased. Retail investors' optimism may drive a short-term rebound, but institutional investors are more inclined to pay attention to the continued performance of financial report season and macro data. The future trend of the US dollar index depends on the pace of interest rate cuts and the differentiation of global monetary policies. Especially in the context of improved economic growth expectations in the euro zone, the US dollar may face certain downward pressure.

To sum up, the release of PCE data in July provides a new direction for the market to think about. A moderate rise in core inflation has not shaken expectations of interest rate cuts, but market sentiment reflects concerns about inflation stickiness and policy uncertainty in the short-term volatility. In the www.xmniubi.coming weeks, investors need to pay close attention to non-farm data, financial report quarterly performance and the latest statements of the Federal Reserve to determine whether the market can maintain resilience in the rate cut cycle. Anyway, whenThe former market is in a delicate balance, with both the support of economic fundamentals and the potential risks brought by inflation and policy adjustments. Traders need to remain highly vigilant.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The "tug-of-war" of long and shorts after PCE data, and the key support level ushers in the final stress test before "non-agricultural"". It was carefully www.xmniubi.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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