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Fed's favorite inflation indicator supports interest rate cuts in September, Trump's tariff measures are sentenced to illegal
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator supports interest rate cuts in September, and Trump's tariff measures were sentenced to illegality." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 1, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.14. Last Friday, as U.S. inflation data basically met expectations, strengthening the Fed's expectations that interest rate cuts next month, the US dollar index rose first and then fell, and eventually fell slightly by 0.001% to 97.86. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.233%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.625%. Spot gold rose for four consecutive days, and once stood above the $3,450 mark at the end of the trading session, and finally closed up 0.9%, closing at $3,448/ounce, the best single-month performance since April; spot silver closed up 1.53% to $39.7/ounce. As the market is concerned that the oil supply is imminent, international crude oil has fallen, and the monthly line closes for the first time since April this year. After data showed that the US consumer confidence index fell to a three-month low, WTI crude oil fell sharply in the short term, falling below the $64 mark again, and finally closed down 0.47% to $63.79/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.35% to $67.38/barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.82. The dollar rebounded this week after three consecutive weeks of losses. However, it still hovered at the bottom of the annual range, with the U.S. dollar index remaining below 98. Technically, the US dollar index is trying to close below the 97.75 level. If this attempt is successful, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is in the 97.10–97.30 range.
Gold and crude oil market trend analysis
1)Gold market trend analysis
On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3443.08. Gold maintained its bullish momentum, climbing to its highest level since the end of July, exceeding $3400. Upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, such as business activity and employment data, may affect the market's pricing of the Fed's policy outlook and drive the short-term trend of XAU/USD.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 63.64. Oil prices are expected to record a second consecutive week. According to reports, ExxonMobil is expected to return to the Russian Far East Coast oil and gas field development project, traders reweighted the prospects of Russia's fuel supply, and oil prices fell from a three-week high. But the possibility of meeting between Russia and Ukraine continues to decrease to support the bottom of oil prices.
Foreign exchange market trading reminder on September 1, 2025
①To be determined Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit held
②09:45 China's August RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
③14:00 UK August Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate
④14:30 Switzerland July Real Retail Sales Annual Rate
⑤15:50 France August Manufacturing PMI Final Value
⑥15:55 The final value of manufacturing PMI in Germany in August
⑦16:00 The final value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in August
⑧16:30 The final value of manufacturing PMI in the UK in August
⑨16:30 The central bank mortgage loan license in July
⑩17:00 The unemployment rate in the euro zone in July
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