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The US dollar index fluctuates downward, the market is waiting for US PCE inflation data

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The US dollar index fluctuates and goes down, and the market is waiting for US PCE inflation data." Hope it will be helpful to you! Original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Friday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated downward, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, and traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York after New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams suggested a possible rate cut. President Trump has stepped up efforts to exert more influence on monetary policy and tried to fire Fed director Cook, putting pressure on the dollar again. Cook filed a lawsuit Thursday saying Trump has no right to remove her.

Analysis of major currencies

U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.17. The US dollar index fell on Thursday, and it has not yet broken through the key resistance level. Meanwhile, traders' expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut next month continue to heat up. The statement of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York strengthens the "data-dependent" policy stance - according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market currently believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting from September 16 to 17 has reached 89%, and the cumulative interest rate cut is expected to reach 55 basis points by the end of the year. Technically, the current US dollar index remains below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently at the 98.000 mark. Since August, the US dollar index has tried to break through this level many times intraday, but all ended in failure, confirming that 98.000 has become a key resistance range. As long as the price continues to be below the 50-day moving average, the market momentum will be biased towards the short position; unless the US dollar index re-stops the moving average and closes above it, otherwise it will not be confirmed that the trend has reversed.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1675, and the euro/dollar rose slightly on Thursday as the US dollar (USD) failed to gain momentum in optimistic U.S. data, while the ongoing conflict between U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Director Lisa Cook continues. The U.S. economic schedule will release the Fed's preferred inflation indicator - the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday. Technically, the upward trend of the EUR/USD is still intact, with an increase of more than 1.1600, reaching a three-day high of nearly 1.1700. It is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns to the bullish zone after turning bearish, indicating that the buyer is dominant.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3503, and GBP/USD entered its third consecutive bullish trading day on Thursday, climbing back above 1.3500, erasing most of the early losses caused by the decline of half a percentage point on Monday. The GBP/USD is still firmly in the near-term consolidation range, but the market is preparing for the upward response to the inflation data of the U.S. Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) on Friday. Technically, GBP/USD has begun to tend to be bullish after sliding near the 50-day index moving average (EMA) near 1.3455 in the past few weeks.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. IMF No. 2 warned that the global bond market should not be underestimated

Gita Gopinath, first vice president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the borrowing level in the global economy should not be taken lightly, and the bond market is in a "frail state." "Debt levels are incredibly high, and are still rising," Gopinath said on Thursday. "In the past you might say, 'So what? The market will bear it.' But now it's no longer the case, even in developed economies." Gopinath, the second-person in the IMF, is about to step down and return to Harvard University this week. He pointed out signs of debt concerns in the French and British bond markets, "So too long-term U.S. bonds."

2. Fed Waller: Will support the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the next 3-6 months.

Fed Waller said that excluding the temporary impact of tariffs, the potential inflation rate is close to 2%. "Moderate Limitation" of Policy Interest Rate, expected to be 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points higher than the neutral interest rate. Unless the August job report shows a sharp weak economy and inflation remains well controlled, it is not believed that a larger rate cut is needed in September. I had hoped for a rate cut in July, but now I feel stronger. It will support the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the next 3-6 months. Labor demand is weakening, which is not a good thing. The downward risks of the labor market are increasing. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is "absolutely indispensable."

3. Trump: Consider convening a national Republican conference before the midterm elections

U.S. President Trump issued a statement saying that the Republican Party has done a good job. Millions of people join us in our pursuit of making America great again. We have won every aspect of the presidential election and based on the great success we have achieved, we will be a big winner in the midterm elections. We have raised much more money than the Democrats, and we are actively repairing all the mistakes caused by the Biden administration and watching the United States heal and prosper. The results are incredible, record-breaking speed! ! Based on this, I am considering suggesting to the Republican Party that a national conference will be held before the midterm elections. This will be an unprecedented move.

4. Israel confirmed air strikes against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen

The Israel Defense Force issued a statement on August 28 saying that the Israeli army launched air strikes on the military targets of the Houthi armed forces in Yemen that day. The statement said that under the guidance and funding of Iran, the Houthi forces have continuously threatened the security of Israel and its allies, undermined regional stability and disrupted international freedom of navigation. According to Israeli Army Radio, Israeli security officials said that the targets of the Israeli air strikes include the locations of some senior Houthi officials.

5. Fed Director Cook warned Trump: removing her from her position will put the US economy at risk

Fed Director Lisa Cook warned US President Trump in a www.xmniubi.complaint that removing her from her position will cause "irreparable harm" to the US economy. In the indictment documents, Cook dismissed Trump's allegations of her alleged mortgage fraud, saying it was just an excuse to fire her and try to take control of the Fed. Cook hopes that U.S. judges can issue a temporary ban to prevent Trump from removing her from office in the event of a lawsuit, thereby maintaining the status quo of the Federal Reserve and protecting the interests of the U.S. public.

Institutional View

1. Federal Bank of Australia: Despite the pressure on Russian oil, India may still be a major buyer

Despite the United States imposing tariffs, India may continue to be a major buyer of Russian oil. Federal Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar pointed out in the report that while ship tracking data confirmed that exports to India have dropped by at least 15% to 20% since late June, India's failure to issue an official ban or reduce procurement volume reflects that "the country is trying to walk a political tightrope." Dhar added: "India is trying to cater to the US in some ways while working to maintain its ties with Russia.Tie. "He analyzed that since the price of Russian oil is slightly discounted www.xmniubi.compared to Brent crude oil, Indian refineries are likely to continue to purchase large quantities of Russian oil to maximize profits.

2. Dutch International Group: It is expected that the boost to the US dollar by the potential optimistic data will be short-lived

The initial GDP value of the US second quarter may be slightly raised, and data such as initial unemployment claims will also be released. Dutch International Group analyst Chris Turner said in a report that even if the upcoming U.S. economic data boosts the US dollar, the US dollar will only It can appreciate briefly. After the data is released, Fed governor Waller will make a speech, so the dollar's rise supported by data is unlikely to continue.

3. Dutch International Group: French political concerns have limited impact on the euro

Dutch International Group analyst Turner said in a report that the euro faces further pressure from French political concerns, but the decline in the short term may be limited. He said: "We believe the dollar trend will dominate here, and the euro should be able to find support below 1.1600 by September. ”

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

The US dollar index fluctuates downward, the market is waiting for US PCE inflation data

Analysis of major currencies

1. IMF No. 2 warned that the global bond market should not be underestimated

2. Fed Waller: Will support the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the next 3-6 months.

3. Trump: Consider convening a national Republican conference before the midterm elections

4. Israel confirmed air strikes against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen

5. Fed Director Cook warned Trump: removing her from her position will put the US economy at risk

Institutional View

1. Federal Bank of Australia: Despite the pressure on Russian oil, India may still be a major buyer

2. Dutch International Group: It is expected that the boost to the US dollar by the potential optimistic data will be short-lived

3. Dutch International Group: French political concerns have limited impact on the euro

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

The US dollar index fluctuates downward, the market is waiting for US PCE inflation data

Analysis of major currencies

1. IMF No. 2 warned that the global bond market should not be underestimated

2. Fed Waller: Will support the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the next 3-6 months.

3. Trump: Consider convening a national Republican conference before the midterm elections

4. Israel confirmed air strikes against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen

5. Fed Director Cook warned Trump: removing her from her position will put the US economy at risk

Institutional View

1. Federal Bank of Australia: Despite the pressure on Russian oil, India may still be a major buyer

2. Dutch International Group: It is expected that the boost to the US dollar by the potential optimistic data will be short-lived

3. Dutch International Group: French political concerns have limited impact on the euro

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason